Three distinct signals are converging on BHP this week. Short sellers pushed shares on loan higher. Options traders moved aggressively in the opposite direction. And a borrow market that was completely locked for weeks has suddenly reopened.
For most of June, BHP's lending market was effectively shut. Availability sat below 1% from May 13 through June 15 — meaning virtually every share in the lending pool was already out on loan. On June 16, availability read just 0.09%.
That's changed sharply. Availability climbed to 12.8% by June 23. New supply entered the pool. The cost to borrow followed, dropping 54% over the week to 2.59%.
The loosening matters because it coincides with — not precedes — a continued rise in shares on loan. Short interest climbed to 16.85 million shares as of June 23, up ~7% on the week. Bears added to positions even as the pool reopened.
Against that bearish positioning, options flow tells a different story. BHP's put-call ratio hit 0.56 on June 23, near its 52-week low of 0.51 recorded the day prior. The 20-day average PCR sits at 0.68. The z-score of -1.86 signals call buying is well outside the normal range.
The stock fell 4.1% on June 23 and is down 11.1% over the past week. Heavy call buying into a falling stock suggests some participants see the selloff as overdone, or are positioning ahead of BHP's August 17 earnings.
B of A Securities lowered its price target on BHP to $91 on June 22 — still 10.7% above the current price of $82.25. The rating stays Neutral. That modest trim reflects caution, not a directional call.
EPS momentum over 30 days ranks in the 74th percentile. The 12-month forward EPS growth estimate scores in the 99th percentile. Dividend score sits at 91. The fundamental case for the stock looks intact even as the near-term price action weakens.
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