BHP: Calls Flood In as Borrow Market Reopens

Three distinct signals are converging on BHP this week. Short sellers pushed shares on loan higher. Options traders moved aggressively in the opposite direction. And a borrow market that was completely locked for weeks has suddenly reopened.

The Borrow Freeze That Just Thawed

For most of June, BHP's lending market was effectively shut. Availability sat below 1% from May 13 through June 15 — meaning virtually every share in the lending pool was already out on loan. On June 16, availability read just 0.09%.

That's changed sharply. Availability climbed to 12.8% by June 23. New supply entered the pool. The cost to borrow followed, dropping 54% over the week to 2.59%.

The loosening matters because it coincides with — not precedes — a continued rise in shares on loan. Short interest climbed to 16.85 million shares as of June 23, up ~7% on the week. Bears added to positions even as the pool reopened.

Options Traders Disagree

Against that bearish positioning, options flow tells a different story. BHP's put-call ratio hit 0.56 on June 23, near its 52-week low of 0.51 recorded the day prior. The 20-day average PCR sits at 0.68. The z-score of -1.86 signals call buying is well outside the normal range.

The stock fell 4.1% on June 23 and is down 11.1% over the past week. Heavy call buying into a falling stock suggests some participants see the selloff as overdone, or are positioning ahead of BHP's August 17 earnings.

What Analysts Are Saying

B of A Securities lowered its price target on BHP to $91 on June 22 — still 10.7% above the current price of $82.25. The rating stays Neutral. That modest trim reflects caution, not a directional call.

EPS momentum over 30 days ranks in the 74th percentile. The 12-month forward EPS growth estimate scores in the 99th percentile. Dividend score sits at 91. The fundamental case for the stock looks intact even as the near-term price action weakens.

Data Summary

• Shares on loan: 16.85M (+7% week-on-week)
• Borrow availability: 12.8% (tight; was near 0% for most of June)
• Cost to borrow: 2.59% (-54% week-on-week, +59% month-on-month)
• Put-call ratio: 0.56 (z-score: -1.86; near 52-week low)
• Price: $82.25 (-11.1% past week)
• Next earnings: August 17, 2026
• B of A target: $91 (Neutral, lowered from $93, June 22)