NUE enters the back half of June with a genuine tension at its core: analyst conviction is building just as the stock sells off hard.
The week's defining move came from Keybanc, which upgraded NUE to Overweight with a fresh $274 target — filed this morning, making it the most timely piece of analyst action in the dataset. That follows Morgan Stanley lifting its target to $258 from $227 on Monday, even while holding an Equal-Weight rating. JP Morgan raised its Overweight target to $282 earlier in the month. Wells Fargo trimmed slightly to $283 but kept Overweight. Barclays initiated at Overweight with a $270 target last month. The broad message from the Street is consistent: most analysts see meaningful upside from here, with the consensus mean price target at $259.88 — roughly 8.5% above Tuesday's close of $239.63. The lone dissenting note in the recent flow is UBS, which downgraded to Neutral back in late April, citing valuation. That signal looks less out of place after a week where NUE fell 7.5%.
The selloff is not unique to Nucor — the whole steel complex has been hit. Closest peer fell more than 10% on the week, dropped 7.6%, and led declines at more than 18%. is actually holding up relatively well in that context. The sector-wide pressure reflects a familiar bear case: domestic steel pricing remains soft, non-residential construction end markets have weakened, and forward EPS growth ranks only in the 31st percentile of the universe. Against that, bulls point to Nucor's cost discipline, its diversified downstream operations, and EPS momentum that ranks in the 88th percentile on a 30-day basis and 82nd on a 90-day basis — meaning analysts have been raising near-term estimates even as the longer view stays compressed.
Positioning carries no real edge for bears. Short interest is a modest 1.7% of the free float, and it has been falling — down roughly 14% over the past month as shorts have covered steadily since early June. Borrow is essentially free at 0.32%, and availability is exceptionally loose at over 6,000%, meaning there is abundant capacity to build new short positions but little evidence anyone is rushing to do so. Options traders are similarly relaxed: the put/call ratio at 0.71 is slightly below its 20-day average of 0.74, and well off the 52-week high of 0.91 set earlier in the year. The lending market and options market together tell a story of low conviction on the downside.
One detail worth noting from the ownership data: Berkshire Hathaway trimmed its position by approximately 2.5 million shares in the most recent filing period, reducing its stake to just under 1.72% of shares. That's a material reduction from a name that had been a prominent holder. BlackRock, by contrast, added nearly 490,000 shares through May. On the insider side, a cluster of executive vice presidents sold shares in early June near the $250–$258 level, including CFO Stephen Laxton. The trades were relatively small in aggregate and carried low significance scores, but they do reinforce a picture of management not adding exposure at current levels. The 90-day net insider position is technically positive at roughly 62,500 shares, but that appears driven by earlier activity rather than fresh buying.
The next earnings print is July 27. Q2 results will be the first clean read on whether the recent EPS estimate upgrades are anchored in something durable or are running ahead of the underlying steel pricing environment — and whether the Street's $274 upside calls can survive contact with the income statement.
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