NOKIA has shed another 9.5% since the previous note, closing at €12.00 on June 23 — still well below the late-May peak — and the most notable development this week is not the selling itself, but the further loosening of the lending market as the stock falls.
The borrow picture has moved in a direction that underscores the earlier thesis: this correction is not short-seller driven. Availability has expanded sharply over the week, rising 35% to 5,099% — meaning there are now roughly 51 shares available in the lending pool for every one currently borrowed. That compares with around 3,790% in the previous note and is the highest reading in the 30-day window. Borrowing costs have stayed flat at about 0.83%, well within the sub-1% range that has prevailed for most of the past two months. The short score has drifted marginally lower to 26.2, ranking in the 94th percentile for low short pressure across the universe. Every data point in the lending market points the same way: the stock is falling without any meaningful addition to the short book.
FMR LLC remains the dominant holder with just over 10% of shares, and they added aggressively in the period ending May 29 — 287 million shares, a position increase that now looks poorly timed given the subsequent price action. Solidium, the Finnish state holding vehicle, and BlackRock hold steady at around 6% and 4.5% respectively. The more interesting ownership signal came from inside the company in late April: CEO Justin Hotard bought roughly $900,000 worth of shares at €9.15, and Chairman Timo Ihamuotila added a combined €530,000 across two tranches on the same day. Those purchases now show a paper gain of around 30% at current prices — a useful reminder that the stock has recovered meaningfully from its April trough even amid the recent correction.
The Street angle is complicated by stale analyst data — the most recent consensus on record dates to late 2022, making any price-target reference unreliable against a €12 stock. On valuation, the picture is less stretched than it was a month ago. The price-to-earnings multiple has compressed by about 4.7 points over 30 days to around 32.4x, and EV/EBITDA has pulled back by 0.27 turns to 18.4x. The forward EPS estimate trajectory remains the standout positive: the 12-month forward earnings growth score ranks in the 94th percentile, and the dividend score at 96th percentile reflects a consistent, if modest, payout history. What has faded is momentum — consistent with the note from June 10, which flagged the score retreating from its mid-May peak as the rate of outperformance eased. That softening is now more advanced.
Closest peer ERIC B fell 4% on the week, providing some sector context for Nokia's own move. EXTR bucked the trend, gaining 2.4% over the same period, while FFIV was roughly flat, down 1.2%. Nokia's week-on-week change of essentially zero — flat on the week despite Tuesday's 2.3% drop — suggests the stock may be stabilising around the €12 level, though the month's 9.5% loss still defines the trend.
The Q2 earnings release is set for July 23. The April print produced a 5.1% one-day gain and a remarkable 24.6% five-day gain — the clearest evidence in the data that the market responds strongly to positive surprises from Nokia. With CEO buying recorded just days before the April release and the stock now roughly 20% below the late-May peak, the setup heading into the next print will be defined by whether the April momentum narrative can be rebuilt or whether the correction signals something more structural in the demand environment.
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