HUN has extended its post-crash slide, down another 14% on the week to $11.38, yet the options market is sending a strikingly different signal — the most bullish read on the stock in over a year.
The clearest divergence right now sits in options. The put/call ratio has collapsed to 0.43, more than 2.5 standard deviations below its 20-day average of 0.58 — and the lowest reading of the past 52 weeks. That's not a cautious crowd hedging downside. It's a heavily call-skewed positioning setup, suggesting that at least one slice of the market sees the $11-handle as an entry point rather than a signal to flee. The shift is abrupt: just a week ago the PCR was running near 0.67, and through most of May it sat above 0.60.
Short interest tells a steadier, more bearish story. The short position has been essentially flat over the past week, edging down just 3.8% to 16.9% of the free float — roughly 29.4 million shares. That's down from the June 15 peak but still up 34% over the past month, and the structural backdrop of a well-funded short campaign remains intact. What has changed is the borrow market. Availability has surged to 1,904% — nearly double last week's reading of around 891% — meaning there are now roughly nineteen shares available to borrow for every one currently shorted. Cost to borrow has fallen sharply too, now running at 0.29%, a 33% drop on the week and well below its mid-June levels near 0.68%. The short-score has also eased to 55.7, retreating from the 67.5 registered on June 15. The borrow pool is loose, the squeeze pressure has dissipated, and shorts face no meaningful friction in holding or adding to positions.
The Street remains cautious but not hostile. Consensus sits at hold, with ten neutral ratings and one sell. Mean price target is $14.58 — a 28% premium to current levels — but the gap is flattering: most targets were set before the 17% single-day drop on June 16. Mizuho upgraded HUN to Neutral from Underperform on June 17, lifting its target to $14 from $10, the one recent move that explicitly acknowledges the lower price level. Factor scores capture the tension well: EPS surprise ranks in the 86th percentile — the company has historically beaten estimates — but EPS momentum is in the bottom 3% on a 30-day view, reflecting the ongoing downward revision cycle in EBITDA. Valuation is the one pillar with genuine support; price-to-book has compressed to 0.77, well below book value, and the analyst-recommendation-divergence score sits in the 94th percentile, meaning current price implies far more pessimism than the formal ratings justify. The bear case — global MDI oversupply, Asian product flooding South America, persistent margin pressure — has not structurally changed since the June 16 sell-off.
Sector peers confirm the week has been broadly difficult, but HUN has been harder hit than most. OLN fell 15% and TROX dropped 17% on the week, while EMN was off around 8%. HUN sits in the middle of that pack on a relative basis, but the accumulated monthly loss of 22% is heavier than most peers. Institutional ownership data shows T. Rowe Price entered a large new position in Q1 (acquiring nearly its entire reported holding of 8.1 million shares) and Dimensional Fund Advisors added over a million shares as recently as late May — filings that predate the June carnage. Whether those inflows represent conviction or are now under water is the question the ownership data can't yet answer.
With Q2 earnings scheduled for July 31, the next act is set: a sharply call-skewed options market pointing toward recovery hopes will collide with an elevated short base and a Street still waiting for evidence that MDI pricing has stabilised. The earnings print will be less about whether Huntsman beats a depressed consensus and more about whether management signals any change in the trajectory of the oversupply dynamic that drove the June sell-off.
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