Canadian Solar Bears Dig In as Borrow Tightens and Stock Slides

The Street picture is muted at best. Mizuho lifted its target to $18 from $15 last week, maintaining a Neutral rating, which feels like a grudging acknowledgement of undervaluation rather than conviction. The mean target across analysts sits at $17.46, implying roughly 19% upside from the $14.73 close — but the direction of recent revisions tells a more cautious story. Wells Fargo trimmed to $17 from $23 in April; Roth Capital cut to $15 from $30 in March; Oppenheimer slashed to $19 from $38 in the same month. Every major revision in 2026 before the most recent Mizuho move was a cut, some of them severe. The ORTEX short score has climbed steadily to 74.8, near a rolling 10-day high, which ranks CSIQ in the bottom 2% of all stocks on short-score pressure. Factor scores add nuance: 30-day EPS momentum sits in the 98th percentile — a bright spot — but quality ranks just in the 9th percentile on utilization-rank and the 4th percentile on days-to-cover, reflecting how stretched the bearish positioning has become relative to average daily volume.

The valuation floor is real but not obviously a catalyst on its own. Price-to-book has compressed to 0.32 — deeply distressed territory — while EV/EBITDA at 9.6x has contracted by roughly half a point over the past month as the stock fell faster than earnings estimates. The earnings yield is negative, flagging that current reported earnings are a headwind. The bull case rests on that value floor and the 30-day EPS momentum surge; the bear case rests on structurally negative returns on capital, a low Piotroski F-score, and the weight of 22% short interest that has been slowly but steadily declining from its May peak near 26% — meaning some covering has occurred, yet conviction among remaining shorts appears undimmed.

The broader solar peer group offered no refuge this week. JKS fell 13% on the week, nearly matching CSIQ's decline, while FSLR lost almost 9%. The selling is clearly sector-wide rather than CSIQ-specific. That context matters: a purely stock-specific catalyst has not been the driver of the recent leg lower, which makes the elevated short interest harder to read as informed versus macro-driven.

The next scheduled earnings release is August 14. Whether the tightening borrow pool and the gap between the options market's call-heavy positioning and the short sellers' conviction begins to close — or widens further into that print — is the key dynamic to track over the next six weeks.