Nebius Group enters the final week of June with a stock that has extended its rally to $275.25 — up 28% in a month — yet the borrow market has snapped back to its tightest levels in weeks, and options traders are now the most defensively positioned they've been all year.
The most striking development since last week's note is what's happened to availability. A week ago the lending pool had loosened to roughly 34%, offering meaningful room for new short positions. That has reversed sharply: availability has collapsed back to just 4.2%, down nearly 88% in seven days, with the lending pool now fully exhausted. Every share available to borrow is already lent out — the same configuration that prevailed throughout much of May. Cost to borrow has risen 29% on the week to 0.97%, still low in absolute terms but on a clear upward slope after weeks near 0.6–0.75%. Short interest itself has crept higher to 21.0% of free float, up from 20.7% in the June 17 note — shorts are adding modestly rather than covering, even as the stock presses toward new highs.
Options are sending a distinct signal on top of the borrow tightness. The put/call ratio has jumped to 1.09, its highest reading of the past year, and is running nearly 2.5 standard deviations above the 20-day average of 0.97. That is a sharp pivot from the neutral 0.97 reading flagged a week ago. In one session, options positioning went from broadly balanced to the most defensive it has been in twelve months. With earnings due July 28, some of this hedging demand likely reflects pre-event caution — though the timing is notable given the stock's recent 28% monthly run.
The Street remains divided but the direction of travel is broadly constructive. B of A Securities lifted its target to $280 earlier in June while holding a Buy. Citi pushed to $287 in May. Against those sits Morgan Stanley, still at Equal-Weight with a $144 target — a number that looks increasingly out of step with the current $275 stock. The mean target across analysts is $244, which sits fractionally below the current price, suggesting the consensus hasn't fully caught up with the rally. Bulls point to the multi-year Microsoft partnership as validation of the vertically-integrated neocloud model. Bears flag hyperscaler competition from AWS, Azure, and GCP, alongside capital intensity and lingering geopolitical overhang tied to the former Yandex parentage. The price-to-book multiple has expanded to 12.6x, up 3.4 points over 30 days, reflecting how quickly the market has repriced the growth narrative.
Institutional positioning adds a layer of interest. Situational Awareness LP disclosed a fresh position of 12.4 million shares — one of the largest new-entrant stakes in the holder register. Founder Arkady Volozh remains the largest holder at 11.5% of shares. The Chairman, John Wilson Boynton, sold just over $1.2 million across multiple tranches on June 15, continuing the pattern of insider trimming into rallies that was flagged in the prior note. The 90-day net insider flow is still a large positive — $129 million net of shares — meaning earlier buying in the period dwarfs the recent selling, but the direction of the most recent insider activity is pointing one way while the stock climbs.
The setup heading into the July 28 earnings print is worth watching closely: availability has reversed its brief loosening completely, short sellers have added rather than covered, the put/call ratio is at a year-high, and the last comparable earnings event delivered a 23% single-day gain — a pattern that keeps the squeeze math alive even with the borrow pool this tight.
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