Spire Global heads into the final week of June with a notable divergence: short sellers are rebuilding positions aggressively while the stock holds steady and analysts remain unanimously bullish.
The short interest story is the week's central tension. Bears have added meaningfully — short interest jumped 21% in a week to reach nearly 15% of the free float, a level that places SPIR firmly in elevated territory for a small-cap satellite data name. That's roughly 4.9 million shares short, up from around 3.7 million just five days ago. Despite the rapid rebuild, the borrow market isn't flashing stress signals yet. Availability has tightened from above 127% to 88% over the week — moving in the wrong direction for bulls, but still indicating there are shares available relative to what's already borrowed. Cost to borrow has climbed 24% on the week to 3.24%, a notable move but still well off the 6%-plus levels seen in mid-May. The ORTEX short score has drifted higher too, reaching 67.6 from 63 a week ago — placing SPIR in the bottom 6th percentile of its universe on that metric. Overall, the short positioning looks aggressive rather than exhausted, but the lending market isn't yet screaming squeeze conditions.
Options traders tell a calmer story. The put/call ratio is running at 0.44, modestly above its 20-day average of 0.41 and about 1.4 standard deviations elevated — a slight tilt toward defensive positioning, but nothing close to the 52-week high of 1.23. Call activity still dominates the options market heavily, suggesting retail and institutional options flow remains more bullish than bearish even as short sellers pile in.
The Street is firmly in the bull camp, and has been raising targets consistently all year. Stifel lifted its target to $24 earlier this month while maintaining Buy — the third target raise from that firm in 2026 alone. Canaccord Genuity has followed a similar path, pushing its target to $22.50 after earnings in May. The consensus target sits near $20.88 against a current price of $17.44, implying roughly 20% upside from here. Bulls point to 44% year-over-year revenue growth excluding the divested maritime business, increasing NATO defense spending as a structural tailwind, and a gross margin target of 60-70% as the operating model scales. Bears counter with real concerns: Q4 revenue fell 27% annually, free cash flow remains negative, and customer concentration plus historical control weaknesses at the financial reporting level are genuine risks. The EPS surprise factor score of 93 is a standout — Spire has consistently beaten estimates, which has helped underpin the stock's momentum despite the pre-profitability profile.
The insider picture is worth noting, though context matters. CEO Theresa Condor sold shares on June 12 for around $263,000, following a cluster of executive sales on May 20 that included the CFO, COO, and Founder-Chairman Peter Platzer. Aggregate net insider selling over the past 90 days totals roughly $1.35 million — a meaningful number in dollar terms, but the trades are small fractions of individual stakes and appear consistent with routine programmatic selling rather than a directional bet against the company. Institutional ownership meanwhile shows BlackRock and State Street both adding modestly in recent months, providing some counterbalance to the insider selling signal.
Peer performance this week adds a layer of context. Close correlates BKSY and PL — both satellite/Earth observation names — fell 14% and 7% respectively on the week while SPIR added nearly 2%. That relative outperformance is notable given the aggressive short rebuild, and suggests active buying pressure has been absorbing the short-side flow. The next scheduled catalyst is Q2 earnings on August 12 — the prior two prints both produced positive 1-day moves of around 1.5% and 3.3%, though the five-day reaction after the May 27 event was sharply negative at nearly 20%, pointing to a pattern where initial enthusiasm fades quickly in the days that follow.
With the short score climbing, availability tightening week-over-week, and a meaningful delta between where shorts are adding and where analysts see fair value, the August 12 earnings print becomes the event that will either validate the bears' skepticism or force a fresh round of short covering.
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