General Mills heads into its July 1 earnings report with shorts still building, analysts still cutting, and the stock trading above most of the Street's targets.
The most notable development since the June 24 print is that short interest kept climbing rather than unwinding. Bears now hold nearly 10% of the free float — up from 9.4% in the post-print note and up 25% over the past month — with 53 million shares short. That is the most aggressive the position has looked through this entire reporting cycle. Availability has tightened further too, dropping to 179% from roughly 253% three weeks ago. That remains a normal range — still nearly two shares available for every one borrowed — but the direction has been consistently tighter since mid-June, and the cost to borrow, while still a modest 0.50%, has held steady rather than retreating. The lending market is not under stress, but it is moving in one direction.
Options positioning, by contrast, has actually softened heading into this second print. The put/call ratio of 0.78 runs slightly below its 20-day average of 0.82, roughly one standard deviation below the mean — meaning options traders are not rushing for downside protection the way short sellers are pressing the position. That divergence is worth flagging: the short book is expanding, but the options market is not corroborating the urgency.
Analysts cut targets again immediately ahead of the report. TD Cowen lowered to $31 on June 26, and Evercore ISI dropped to $39 from $43 the day before. The pattern over the past six weeks has been uniform — every major firm trimming, none upgrading. The mean target of $36.72 now sits just 4% above a stock that has already rallied 6% on the week to $35.40, meaning the stock has largely traded through the bear-case targets from Wells Fargo, JPMorgan, and Morgan Stanley, all of which cluster around $30–$32. Bulls point to brand resilience and eventual recovery in pet and SNAP-adjacent categories; bears counter with volume declines, declining margins, and a consumer environment that has not yet stabilised. The consensus is unambiguously negative — roughly half the recent coverage carries Underweight or Sell ratings.
Peer moves this week offer some context. CAG gained nearly 5% and CPB rose about 6% — closely correlated names that matched GIS's own weekly bounce. The sector-wide move suggests macro tailwinds rather than GIS-specific re-rating, which makes the continued short building all the more pointed.
The July 1 print will test whether the volume and margin deterioration bears have been pricing in has troughed — or whether the stock's recent recovery has run ahead of the fundamental data.
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