Inflation Bites, Bears Pile In, Big Earnings Loom

Macro in Focus

A key US inflation gauge hit a three-year high today. Mortgage rates climbed alongside it. The data lands at a sensitive moment — earnings season is picking up speed and options markets are already on edge. Traders are pricing in more volatility ahead.

Nike and the Consumer Earnings Test

NKE is the week's headline print. Nike reports Q4 fiscal 2026 results Monday after the close. Options traders are stacking put protection hard — the $35 July 17 strike alone carries nearly 4,000 contracts of open interest. Short interest sits at a modest 5.1% of free float. But with tariff exposure and China demand in question, the options market is more cautious than the short book suggests. STZ and GIS also report Monday, rounding out a big consumer read.

Short Sellers Double Down

Wolfspeed now has 129.9% of its free float shorted — up 26.8 points in a week. Availability is near zero. Lucid Group is close behind at 39.2% SI % FF, with cost to borrow at 78.9% APR. Bears are paying a steep price to hold. Frontier Group and Restaurant Brands also drew fresh short interest this week.

Analysts Upgrade Transport and Chips

Wells Fargo lifted targets across airlines and rails. DAL moved to $86.41 and UAL to $136.63. Railroads UNP, NSC, and CSX all received upward revisions. AMAT got a target bump to $740. Analyst sentiment across transport and semis is clearly improving.

Insiders Sell Big

NVIDIA director Mark Stevens filed $186M in sales on June 23. AST SpaceMobile CEO Abel Avellan sold $146.7M worth of stock. Both companies have run sharply in 2026. A rare counterpoint: a director at Kardigan bought $20M of shares — an unusually large bullish bet.