Lucid Group has flipped the script in a single week — a 16% price surge colliding with the sharpest deterioration in borrow conditions the stock has seen all year, setting up one of the more charged short-squeeze dynamics in the EV space right now.
Since the June 17 note flagged a cost-to-borrow peak near 44%, the borrow market has worsened dramatically. Cost to borrow has nearly tripled in eight sessions, climbing from around 20% on June 16 to a peak of 87% on June 24 before settling near 78% — a seven-fold increase from where it traded in late May. Availability has collapsed to essentially nothing: just 0.12% of borrowed shares remain available to lend, meaning there is barely one share in the pool for every 800 already out. This condition has persisted for weeks, but the cost spike is new — it confirms that shorts are now paying a premium to maintain positions they can barely find supply to hold. The ORTEX short score has climbed further to 84.4, up from 79.4 just ten days ago, ranking in the bottom 1st percentile of the universe for both short score and days-to-cover. Simultaneously, short interest itself has risen — not fallen. Bears added roughly 8.5 million shares in a single session on June 25, pushing SI to 20.8% of the free float and up 15% on the week. That combination — rising short positions meeting near-zero availability and tripling borrow costs — is what makes this week unusual. Shorts are building into a market that is actively punishing them for doing so.
Options positioning tells a slightly different story. Buyers of puts have pulled back relative to recent weeks. The put/call ratio dropped to 1.20, almost 1.8 standard deviations below its 20-day average of 1.30, the lowest reading in recent weeks. That shift suggests options traders are less defensive than they were — perhaps reflecting the stock's 10% weekly gain — even as the borrow market flashes distress. The contrast is worth noting: the lending market screams squeeze pressure, while the options market is quietly turning more neutral.
The Street remains broadly skeptical. The consensus sits at sell, and the most recent analyst moves — from Citigroup, TD Cowen, and Benchmark across April and May — were all in one direction: lower targets or outright downgrades. Citigroup lowered its target to $14, TD Cowen cut to $7, and Benchmark dropped to a Hold with no target. At $5.92, the current price sits well below even the most conservative published targets, though several of those are now six weeks old and may not reflect the stock's recent volatility. The bull case rests on the Uber partnership, a potential robotaxi launch, and a 61% year-on-year revenue increase that gives LCID a growth score of 76 in ORTEX's factor rankings. The bear case is equally plain: quality scores rank at just 10 out of 100, profitability is deeply negative, and the suspension of 2026 guidance has removed whatever near-term visibility investors had.
Institutional ownership reinforces how concentrated the story is. Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund holds 45.4% of shares and has not moved its position. Uber Technologies recently added 24 million shares, now holding 9.7% — a meaningful strategic vote of confidence, even if it leaves the float thin and easy to squeeze. The insider register is less encouraging: the acting CEO, CFO, and two directors all sold in early June at prices near current levels, though in small, routine-sized tranches with low significance scores.
Earnings history adds context. The last three prints each produced a negative one-day reaction — down 7.5%, down 3.2%, and down 10.6% respectively. The next event is August 5. Between now and then, the key variable is whether the squeeze dynamic unwinds or intensifies: borrow cost trends over the next two weeks, any shift in availability back above near-zero, and whether the short interest built this week begins to be covered — or grows further.
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