MOON heads into the final week of June with a striking contradiction at its centre: short sellers tripled their position in a matter of days, yet the borrow market remains almost comically loose, and the stock's mean analyst target sits nearly twice the current price.
The most arresting data point this week is the short interest surge. Shares short jumped roughly 200% over the seven days to June 25 — from around 154,000 to nearly 470,000 — after an even sharper spike to 540,000 on June 22 before pulling back slightly. At just 0.58% of the free float, the absolute level remains low by any meaningful standard. But the speed of the move is unusual for a junior TSXV explorer with this kind of liquidity profile, and it cuts across a week when the stock itself fell 12% to CAD 8.32 from a month-ago position near CAD 9.95.
The borrow market tells a very different story from the short activity. Availability is extremely loose — nearly 1,987% of short interest is currently available to borrow, meaning roughly 9 million shares sit in the lending pool against fewer than 500,000 shorted. Cost to borrow has eased to 4.77%, down from a week-ago level above 5.3%, and the all-year tightness low was 8.7% availability — a world away from where things stand now. The sharp jump in shares short has not come close to straining supply. That looseness matters: it signals no squeeze pressure, no urgency in the lending market, and no forced unwind dynamic in play. The ORTEX short score reads 32, roughly in the middle of its recent range, and has barely moved despite the headline surge in shares borrowed.
The Street's read on MOON is harder to interrogate than usual. The mean analyst price target of CAD 15.13 implies roughly 82% upside from current levels. However, with the analyst data dated June 14 and no recent changes recorded, it is worth treating that figure as stale context rather than active guidance. The EPS surprise factor score ranks in the 99th percentile — exceptional — but for a pre-revenue explorer, that likely reflects how modestly the company missed or matched loss estimates rather than genuine earnings strength. The Piotroski F-score and return on assets are both deeply negative, as flagged in the recent stock score note; quality metrics are a structural drag. Price-to-book sits at 2.4x, which has barely moved over 30 days. The stock's valuation case rests almost entirely on what the ground holds, not what the income statement shows.
Ownership data adds some texture. Monial AS holds nearly 8% of shares and Baker Steel Capital Managers — a specialist resources fund — holds 5.5%, both unchanged from their last reported dates. Franklin Resources added 85,000 shares as recently as April 30. Brookfield Corporation and Deutsche Asset & Wealth Management both appear as new entrants in Q1 filings. These are credible institutional names for an exploration-stage company, and their presence provides a degree of structural support. The most recent insider buy cluster, from the CEO and directors in September 2025, came in the CAD 3.30–3.40 range — well below current levels, meaning those insiders are sitting on material gains but have not been seen adding to positions in recent months.
Peer context confirms this week's weakness was not idiosyncratic. The most closely correlated peer, ASCU, fell nearly 14% on the week. FWZ dropped 12.8%. HSLV and ITH both fell 8–10%. Junior base metals explorers across the TSX and TSXV have broadly retreated together this week, which frames MOON's 12% drop as a sector move rather than a stock-specific event.
The next earnings event is flagged for late August. Between now and then, the stock's direction will be determined by metals price movements and any project-level newsflow — with drill results the obvious catalyst to watch.
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