A011170 heads into the final days of June with the worst week in its peer group, down 18% as shorts maintain elevated borrow costs and the stock trades at a fraction of book value.
The price action is the headline. Lotte Chemical closed at ₩62,900 on June 26, off 6.7% on the day alone and down 25% over the past month. That move is sharper than even its closest comparables: A051910 fell 19.8% on the week, A000210 lost 16.8%, and A285130 dropped 15.3%. The whole Korean chemicals complex is under pressure — but Lotte Chemical is absorbing more of the damage than most.
The borrow market tells a consistent story of sustained short-side conviction. Cost to borrow has been running at 12–13% for the past two weeks, up 15% on the week and holding well above its late-May low of around 11%. That's not a spike — it's a persistent elevated floor, suggesting shorts are comfortable paying to stay in the trade. Availability is at 59% of short interest, which is on the tighter end of the 30-day range; earlier in June availability dipped below 42% and has only partially recovered. The ORTEX short score has held in a narrow band around 54-55 for the full past two weeks, pointing to a stable rather than escalating positioning, and the short score ranks in just the 7th percentile of the universe — placing Lotte firmly among the more shorted names on a relative basis.
Valuation offers little comfort for bulls. The price-to-book has compressed to 0.25x, down roughly 16% over the past month, and earnings yield is negative as the company remains loss-making. EV/EBITDA is around 11.4x, but with EPS momentum ranking in the 6th percentile on a 90-day basis and EPS surprise near the bottom at 9th percentile, the market is not being offered improving fundamentals to buy against. The one genuinely constructive factor score is the 12-month forward EPS growth estimate, which ranks at the 99th percentile — analysts are pencilling in a steep recovery, and the consensus price target of ₩103,118 implies the stock trades at roughly 61% below where the Street sees fair value. However, that target data is over a month old with no recent changes, so it should be read as directional rather than current.
Ownership is largely locked. The Lotte group itself controls more than 55% of shares between Lotte Holdings and Lotte Corporation, both unchanged in their positions through end-2025. The National Pension Service holds a further 7.6%. The freely tradeable float is consequently thin, which helps explain both the severity of price moves and the persistent cost to borrow — there are simply fewer shares available to lend. Recent insider data is stale (last recorded purchase was December 2025 by a managing director, a token 100 shares at ₩73,545), so it provides no live signal on management conviction.
Earnings are scheduled for August 10. The recent history of post-result moves is unambiguously negative: the May 2026 print produced a 10.8% one-day drop and a 15.8% five-day decline, and a separate May 15 announcement triggered an 8.2% one-day fall. The one positive reaction in the dataset — an 18.7% rally on the March 2026 date — stands as the exception. With the stock now 25% lower than it was a month ago, the question heading into August is whether the selloff has pre-priced the next disappointing quarter, or whether the borrow market's refusal to loosen signals that informed sellers see further downside ahead.
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