P911 enters the final week of June with a borrowing market that has abruptly seized up — cost to borrow surged from roughly 10% to 155% in a single session, while the stock shed nearly 10% across the week.
The clearest signal this week is in the lending market. Cost to borrow jumped to 155.7% on June 25 — up from 10.3% the day before, a move of more than 1,000% in one week and over 2,100% in a month. That kind of intraday dislocation in a borrow rate points to a sudden scramble for shares. Availability has tightened but not collapsed: roughly 31% of short interest remains available to borrow, up slightly from the low of 20% hit earlier this month, and well above the 52-week trough of 0.02%. The borrow pool is strained, not exhausted. What is striking is the timing — the rate explosion landed on June 25, the same session the ORTEX short score jumped from 88.9 to 98.8, its highest reading in at least ten days and close to the ceiling of the 0–100 scale. The two signals together describe an acute, sudden increase in demand for borrows rather than a slow build.
The short-score jump is the real headline. At 98.8, Porsche's short score ranks in the bottom percentile of the factor-score universe on that dimension — the short_score_rank factor sits at zero, meaning the signal is as bearish as it gets by ORTEX's composite measure. Days-to-cover ranks in the 2nd percentile. Neither of those reads was new this week — the score sat in the high-80s for the prior ten sessions — but the June 25 spike to nearly 99 marks a step-change. The stock was already down 5% over the past month before this week's 10% slide to €43.22; the borrow-cost explosion arrived into a price already under pressure.
The Street offers limited pushback against that bearish pressure. Analyst consensus is a hold, with eleven analysts on the fence and one underperform. The mean price target is €44.84, implying barely 4% upside from current levels — a spread so thin it offers almost no buffer if the stock continues to weaken. Valuation has de-rated meaningfully: the P/E has contracted by more than two turns over the past week alone to 22x, and EV/EBITDA has slipped to 6.8x. EPS momentum scores are strong on a forward basis — the 12-month forward earnings-growth factor ranks in the 79th percentile — but near-term revisions have been negative, and analyst recommendation divergence ranks at the 100th percentile, suggesting the spread of views is unusually wide for a stock with this much index weight and family ownership.
Ownership structure shapes the whole picture. Porsche Automobil Holding SE holds 87.9% of shares, which means the genuine free float is tiny relative to headline market cap. That structural illiquidity is what makes borrow rates so sensitive to even modest incremental demand — a relatively small number of additional shorts chasing a limited pool of lendable shares can move the cost to borrow by an order of magnitude overnight. Among institutional holders of the free float, BlackRock added roughly 277,000 shares as of end-May, and Dimensional and Amundi have both been building positions this year. None of those moves are large enough to change the narrative, but they do indicate passive and quant buyers are present at these levels. The most recent insider activity — Chairman of the Supervisory Board Wolfgang Heinz Porsche buying 1,500 shares in March 2025 at €47.59 — is now stale at over a year old and carries limited signal value for today's setup.
Among peers, the sector selloff is broad but Porsche's weekly decline of nearly 10% stands out. PAH3, its parent holding company, fell a similar 9.3% on the week. VOW3 dropped 7.7%. MBG and BMW lost roughly 4% and 1.5% respectively — noticeably less. RACE was the outlier, gaining nearly 5% on the week, reinforcing how differently the market is treating true luxury versus volume premium brands right now. Porsche sits uncomfortably between those two categories in investor perception.
Q2 results are scheduled for July 29. Between now and then, the question is whether the borrow-cost spike of June 25 was a one-session technical squeeze or the start of a sustained tightening — and whether the stock can stabilise above the €43 level that now sits just below the analyst consensus target.
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