Options traders are rotating into calls on FCX at the fastest clip in two weeks. That shift comes as a cluster of Wall Street firms have raised price targets — and it stands in contrast to a modest uptick in short positioning.
Scotiabank lifted its target to $77 on June 15. That followed Barclays initiating coverage at Overweight with a $77 target in late May. UBS nudged its Buy target to $75. Wells Fargo raised to $77 in April. The consensus target now sits at $70.50 — roughly 13% above the current $62.45 close.
The mean target reflects a broadly constructive view on Freeport's Grasberg operations and copper-price leverage. FCX fell 9% over the past week, widening the gap between price and analyst targets.
The put-call ratio hit 0.93 on June 26. The 20-day average is 0.97. The z-score is -2.3 — more than two standard deviations below the recent mean. That kind of options skew signals a notable rotation toward calls relative to where traders have been positioned over the past month.
The 52-week PCR range runs from 0.72 to 1.08. At 0.93, FCX sits toward the lower — more bullish — end of that band.
The cost to borrow jumped 392% over the past week to 0.40%. That headline figure is dramatic. The context matters, though. Availability stands at 9,072% — for every share currently borrowed, more than ninety remain available in the lending pool. The borrow market is not remotely tight. The CTB spike reflects noise at the low end of the rate range, not genuine supply pressure. SI sits at 2.1% of free float, a low absolute level.
EPS momentum scores are strong. The 30-day EPS momentum factor ranks in the 88th percentile. The 90-day EPS surprise rank sits at the 82nd percentile. Both suggest estimates are moving in the right direction into the July 23 earnings date.
Recent earnings history is mixed. FCX fell 13% the day after its April print. It gained 3.3% after the June analyst day. The upcoming Q2 report is the next major catalyst.
What to watch: Whether the PCR holds below 0.95 into July 23 earnings — and whether analysts who raised targets above $75 revise after the next production update.
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