Short sellers have pushed OMER to a breaking point. Availability has collapsed to 0% — every share in the lending pool is currently lent out.
That's not a one-day anomaly. Availability has been at or near zero for most of the past six weeks, with only brief, sub-3% windows visible in the data. The borrow market is as tight as it gets.
SI hit 25.6% of free float as of June 26. That's up 14.7% in a single week — 18.2 million shares short in a stock trading at $8.67.
The stock has fallen sharply. It's down 19% in one day, 15.7% over the week, and 25.6% over the past month. Short sellers are sitting on paper gains, yet they continue to add to positions even as the borrow market tightens against them.
Cost to borrow has risen 83% in one week to 2.87% annualised. Over the past month it's up 55%. The absolute level remains moderate, but the direction and pace of the move matter. Demand for borrows is climbing while supply is effectively exhausted.
The commercial backdrop explains the bearish conviction. YARTEMLEA, Omeros's lead product, generated just $9.9M in net revenue in Q1 — well below expectations. HC Wainwright & Co. maintained its Buy rating on June 26 but cut its price target from $40 to $33. That target still implies roughly 280% upside from the current price — a gap that reflects how far the stock has fallen from analyst expectations.
Bulls point to the July 1st J-code effective date and a proposed CMS NTAP as near-term catalysts that could accelerate hospital adoption. Bears see a sluggish launch with limited near-term financial returns from the broader pipeline.
The ORTEX short score stands at 82.24 — placing OMER in the third percentile for short score rank. Days to cover sit at 8.44, per the most recent FINRA fortnightly data.
Next earnings are scheduled for August 13. The period between now and then is framed by the July 1st J-code date — the most proximate catalyst that could shift the commercial narrative one way or the other. Availability would need to meaningfully loosen before any squeeze dynamic could develop; at 0%, the setup for one is structurally present but dependent on a demand shock that reverses short sentiment.
See the live data behind this article on ORTEX.
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