MU closed June with its bull and bear camps further apart than ever. A wave of analyst upgrades pushed consensus price targets sharply higher. At the same time, options traders held their most defensive posture in 52 weeks.
Ten firms raised price targets in the 48 hours after the June 24 earnings print. Cantor Fitzgerald's C.J. Muse moved to $2,000 from $1,500 on June 29. Barclays went to $2,000 from $1,175. DA Davidson matched that $2,000 level. Deutsche Bank moved to $1,550. Raymond James raised to $1,500.
The consensus mean sits at $1,454. With MU trading at $1,145, that implies roughly 27% upside to the average target — and 75% to the most bullish call.
EPS momentum underpins the enthusiasm. The 30-day EPS momentum factor ranks in the 95th percentile. The 90-day reading sits at the 80th percentile. Goldman Sachs remains the outlier, maintaining Neutral with a $1,100 target — the only major firm still below the current price.
The put/call ratio hit 1.398 on June 26 — a 52-week high. It has since eased to 1.375, but the 20-day average is 1.310 and the z-score sits at 1.94. That is the most sustained defensive options posture MU has seen all year.
This is not a new pattern. The prior stock report noted the PCR climbing into the June 24 print as a deliberate hedge rather than panic. The hedge paid off — the stock fell 13% the day after earnings before recovering. The PCR has not normalised. Options traders are not yet buying the $2,000 narrative.
Short interest climbed to 3.74% of free float as of June 29, up 11.8% over the past week and 12.3% over the past month. At 3.7%, this is a meaningful but not extreme short position for a large-cap semiconductor name.
Cost to borrow jumped 58% week-on-week to 0.35%. That is still very low in absolute terms. Availability remains exceptionally loose — well above any level that would constrain new short positions. The borrow market is not signalling a squeeze setup.
The short base appears to be a valuation hedge against the analyst enthusiasm, not a directional bet on business deterioration.
The next earnings date is September 30. Between now and then, the debate is between the $2,000 analyst targets and a PCR still sitting near its 52-week high. The stock is up 18% over the past month and down 5.5% over the past week — quarter-end flows and the ongoing DRAM price-fixing lawsuit remain active noise in the background.
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