Bloom Energy: Analysts Chase the Stock Higher as Options Calm Down

Bloom Energy ends June with a notable shift in tone — the defensive options extreme flagged in the previous note has unwound, analysts are racing to raise targets, and the stock is holding near $302 after a 10% single-day surge on June 30.

The most striking development this week is on the analyst desk. Three firms lifted price targets on July 1 alone. UBS raised its target to $350, Evercore ISI moved to $350 from $295, and Roth Capital lifted to $285 from $225 — all maintaining existing ratings rather than upgrading. That cluster of same-day revisions is less a change in conviction and more a scramble to catch up with price action. Barclays had already moved its Equal-Weight target to $276 earlier in the week, and Bernstein initiated at Market Perform with a $276 target on June 17. The overall picture is a Street that still skews cautious on ratings — the consensus sits at Sell with a mean target of $275 — yet keeps nudging targets higher as the stock runs past them. The mean target now sits below the current price of $302, which captures the tension well: analysts are following, not leading.

The defensive options posture that dominated the prior note has meaningfully eased. The put/call ratio has pulled back to 1.26 from the 1.43–1.45 peak registered June 23–24, and the z-score is now just 0.35 — barely above the 20-day average of 1.23. The earlier extreme appears to have been a reaction to the sharp vertical move in the stock; with price digesting that move, options traders have reduced their hedging activity. Borrow conditions remain loose, with availability running at over 2,000% — meaning roughly twenty shares are available for every one currently borrowed. The cost to borrow has doubled over the past month to 0.59%, which sounds alarming in isolation but remains low in absolute terms. Short interest has actually trimmed slightly this week, falling about 3.5% to 12.5% of the free float, partially reversing the 30-day build of 15%. The borrow market tells no squeeze story here.

Insider selling has been a consistent backdrop. Four senior executives — the COO, Chief Commercial Officer, Chief Legal Officer, and Chief Accounting Officer — all sold shares on June 16, realising between $650,000 and $1 million each at around $289. Director John Chambers sold 55,000 shares in late May for roughly $16.4 million. The 90-day net insider figure is modestly positive at $61 million, but that is largely explained by CEO K.R. Sridhar receiving an 80,000-share award in May rather than open-market buying. The recurring cadence of executive sales at prices now below the current level is worth noting; those transactions at $288–$289 look early with the stock now at $302.

The fundamental picture supports the re-rating, at least directionally. EPS momentum ranks in the 90th percentile on both 30-day and 90-day windows, and the forward EPS year-on-year growth score hits the 100th percentile. The bull case centres on data-centre demand for on-site clean power, a growing backlog, and a strong recent earnings print — the April 28 result triggered a 22.7% one-day move and a 25.8% five-day move, the most dramatic reaction in the recent history. The bear case, as Bloom's own analyst community notes, focuses on methane-fuel-cell reliance, customer concentration, and a valuation that remains stretched — the P/E runs above 103x and EV/EBITDA above 81x, both well into territory where execution risk carries extra weight. Close peer FCEL surged 65% on the week, a reminder of how violently fuel-cell names can move in either direction.

The next scheduled catalyst is Q2 earnings on July 30. With the stock having recovered from its June lows and analysts freshly re-anchored above $275, the setup into that print will depend on whether guidance holds and whether the data-centre order flow narrative stays intact — the same tension between extraordinary momentum scores and a valuation that leaves little room for disappointment.