Fulton Financial heads into its July 14 earnings with a notable divergence: short sellers are adding positions at pace while options traders are among the most bullish they've been all year.
The short interest story is the most striking data point this week. Bears have built aggressively — shorts now cover 6.1% of the free float, up 10% on the week and a remarkable 53% higher than a month ago. The rise has been almost entirely one-directional since late May, when positions sat near 7.2 million shares. They crossed 11 million by June 30. That kind of sustained build into a regional bank earnings print is uncommon and worth watching closely.
Options traders are reading the setup very differently. The put/call ratio has collapsed to just 0.22, nearly 1.5 standard deviations below its 20-day average of 0.41 and close to the lowest reading in the past year. Calls are swamping puts by a wide margin, suggesting that buyers of options are positioning for upside rather than hedging against a drop. The borrow market offers no immediate pressure on the short side — availability runs at 740% of short interest, meaning shares to bend remain plentiful relative to what is currently borrowed, and the cost to borrow is just 0.51%. The lending pool is not tight. Shorts can add freely without triggering a squeeze dynamic.
The Street leans cautiously positive. Raymond James analyst David Long raised his target from $24 to $26 on July 1, reiterating Outperform — a timely move that takes his target above the current $24.19 price and is the most recent indication of bullish conviction from a covering analyst. The consensus mean target is $23.71, a modest discount to the current price, which reflects the broader split on the name. Bulls point to post-acquisition efficiency gains from the Republic First and Blue Foundry deals, improving deposit cost management, and a stable credit backdrop. Bears counter with the prospect of flat net interest margins through 2027, integration risk, and a P/TBV still at a discount to peers — the price-to-book currently trades at 1.13x, up about 6% over 30 days but still below comparable regional banks. The ORTEX short score has drifted up to 48.6 from 44.2 two weeks ago, nudging toward neutral from the low end of its recent range.
Institutional ownership provides a stable backdrop without offering much directional signal. BlackRock holds 13.8% of shares, adding around 750,000 shares through May. State Street and Geode both added modestly in the same period. The insider picture is more mixed: CEO Curtis Myers sold roughly 30,700 shares at $21.26 in early May — before the stock's 11% jump over the past month — while director awards in June were routine compensation grants carrying no market signal. Net insider value over the prior 90 days looks positive primarily because of those awards rather than open-market purchases.
The last four earnings reactions for FULT have been muted, with next-day moves ranging from -1.9% to +1.0%, and five-day drifts staying within two percentage points in either direction. Q2 results on July 14 arrive with the stock up 11% over the past month and a peer group — FNB, ASB, COLB — that has broadly risen 2-3% on the week, suggesting sector tailwinds rather than stock-specific re-rating. The question the July 14 print answers is whether the efficiency improvements from integration are translating into margin expansion, or whether the bear case on flat NIM through 2027 is proving out — and that gap is precisely what the divergence between the short build and the call-heavy options book reflects.
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