Vornado Realty Trust enters July having outpaced its office REIT peers on a month of genuine momentum — but options traders are now as bullish as they've been all year, and the Street remains split on whether the stock has room to run from here.
The price move is striking context for everything else. VNO closed June at $39.30, up 16% over the past month and 4.4% on the week — ahead of close peers SLG (+3.3%), BXP (+3.1%), and CUZ (+3.9%), with KRC a notable laggard at just +0.7% on the week. The stock is now brushing against levels last seen before the office REIT sector entered its multi-year downturn, which makes the analyst consensus mean target of $36.15 — sitting below the current price — an interesting friction point. That gap suggests the rally has outrun the Street's collective models, at least for now.
Positioning tells a nuanced story. Short interest has drifted lower over the week, falling roughly 5% to about 5.8% of free float — material enough to warrant attention, but not extreme. The borrow market is deeply relaxed: availability is running at 481%, meaning there are nearly five shares available to lend for every one currently shorted. Cost to borrow is nudging higher, up 16% on the week to 0.54%, but from a low base and still firmly in "easy borrow" territory. None of that points to a squeeze or meaningful short-side conviction. Options reinforce the bullish lean: the put/call ratio has collapsed to 0.32, nearly two standard deviations below its 20-day average of 0.54, and close to the lowest reading of the past year. Call-heavy positioning this aggressive has not been seen since well before the current rally began.
The Street has been playing catch-up with upgrades, though the consensus hasn't fully embraced the move. Multiple firms raised targets through June — BMO Capital and Evercore ISI moved to $43, Ladenburg Thalmann to $45 — while JPMorgan lifted to $37 on a Neutral. Barclays, acting this week, raised its Underweight target to just $29, keeping the bearish flag planted well below market. The bull case centres on Vornado's NYC portfolio quality and the Penn District development pipeline, where leasing momentum has been building. Bears point to the capital commitment required for PENN 15 and uncertainties around 350 Park Avenue, where demolition costs and anchor-tenant timing remain unresolved. EPS momentum ranks in the 98th percentile on a 30-day basis and the 100th percentile over 90 days — an exceptional reading — though the 12-month forward EPS year-over-year trajectory ranks just 31st, reflecting how far the recovery still has to run on an absolute basis. The EV/EBITDA multiple of 19.7x has compressed roughly 1.4 turns over the past month, an early sign that the valuation re-rating is moderating.
One ownership note worth flagging: BlackRock added over 1.1 million shares through May, lifting its stake to 12.1% of shares outstanding. That is a meaningful institutional endorsement. Against that, former president Michael Fascitelli sold approximately 133,000 shares at prices between $36.57 and $37.34 on June 17 — close to where the stock was trading at the time, suggesting a straightforward monetisation rather than a directional call. Net insider activity over the past 90 days is positive at roughly $4.9 million, driven by trustee Daniel Tisch's cluster of purchases in late February and early March at prices around $26–$28 — well below today's level.
The next earnings date is August 3, and what to watch is whether management can offer specifics on anchor-tenant progress at Penn District and the timeline for 350 Park Avenue — the two variables the bears are pricing as risks and the bulls are treating as optionality.
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