NG. enters its July 14 results with one of the most benign short-selling setups in the UK utility sector — the real story this week is not what bears are doing, but how little they are doing at all.
The borrow market tells that story clearly. Availability is effectively uncapped, with over 1.8 billion shares sitting idle in the lending pool — more than enough to absorb any surge in short demand many times over. The ORTEX short score of 25.8 ranks in the 90th percentile for the sector, meaning very few stocks look less attractive to short sellers right now. Utilisation has collapsed from a brief spike near 37% in late May back to just 0.6%, erasing what turned out to be a transient episode in the lending market rather than a structural bearish build. Cost to borrow has followed the same path — it ran above 2% through most of May, hit 3.1% on May 21, and has since fallen back to roughly 0.56%, confirming that the brief demand for borrows has fully unwound. The lending setup is about as loose as it gets.
That spike deserves a moment's attention. In the final week of May, utilisation jumped from roughly 5% to a 52-week peak of 41.7%, cost to borrow briefly tripled, and availability compressed sharply — all classic signs of a short-seller event. The timing coincided with National Grid's full-year results on May 14, when the stock fell nearly 7% on the day before recovering almost entirely over the following five sessions. What looked like a squeeze setup resolved itself quickly, and by the first week of June both borrow costs and utilisation had normalised. The pattern suggests tactical short activity around the results rather than any durable bearish thesis building.
The Street reflects that same lack of urgency from the bears. The analyst consensus is a buy, with a mean price target of 13.62p against a current price of 12.48p — roughly 9% implied upside. The EV/EBITDA multiple has drifted down modestly over the past month to just under 10.9x, while the P/E has compressed slightly to around 13x. By the standards of the UK and European utility peer group, that is not demanding: CNA fell 1% on the week while EOAN added about 1.2%, and ED on the NYSE gained nearly 1.7% — National Grid's 1.8% weekly gain sits comfortably in the middle of the peer pack, with no visible divergence suggesting sector rotation pressure. The dividend score ranks in the 57th percentile, reasonable for a capital-intensive regulated utility, though the most recent dividend data in the system dates back to mid-2022 and should be verified against current policy before drawing conclusions.
Insider activity has been quiet and non-directional. The only genuine cash purchase in the recent window was an independent director buying 1,936 shares at 12.81p in late May — a symbolic show of support worth around £24,000 rather than a conviction signal. The CEO and CFO both received share awards in mid-June at no cost, standard long-term incentive activity that carries little read-through for near-term direction. Net insider value transacted over the past 90 days is essentially flat.
With results due July 14, the focus turns to whether the adjusted earnings per share growth flagged in the most recent note — roughly 4% in the half-year — can be sustained, and more specifically whether National Grid will provide updated guidance on its multi-year capital programme and any regulatory developments in either its UK transmission or US networks divisions. The last two results triggered a day-one decline of 6.9% and 3.3% respectively, both recovering within a week; the low short interest and loose borrow market mean there is no obvious amplifier for a sharp move in either direction, but the earnings-day reaction pattern is worth tracking carefully.
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