Altimmune enters July with one of the most heavily shorted positions in small-cap biotech, even as the stock edges higher and insiders continue to put their own money in.
Short interest is the defining story here, and the numbers are stark. Bears hold 45.4% of the free float short — up 15% on the week and 33% over the past month. That puts roughly 47.3 million shares on the short side, against a stock trading at just $3.04. The ORTEX short score has climbed to 80.5, near the top of the range, and ranks in the third percentile of the broader universe — meaning nearly every other stock tracked has a less extreme short setup. Days to cover hit 14.6 on the most recent FINRA fortnightly filing, giving shorts a significant unwind problem if sentiment turns.
The borrow picture is a contrast in signals. Despite the surge in short interest, availability has not tightened into squeeze territory. At 82%, availability has dropped sharply — it was running above 150% for most of June — but it remains in the "tight" rather than "dangerously thin" zone, well above the 52-week low of 1.1% recorded earlier in the year. Cost to borrow is rising, up 36% on the week to 0.58%, but that remains a low absolute rate. The message from the lending market is that demand for borrows is accelerating fast, yet supply hasn't dried up to the point where a mechanical squeeze is imminent. Options traders are telling a similar non-alarmist story: the put/call ratio of 0.06 is running near its 52-week low, meaning call volume dominates heavily and there is almost no defensive hedging in the options market.
The Street disagrees sharply with the shorts. All seven analysts covering ALT rate it a buy, giving it a perfect consensus and a 99th-percentile analyst recommendation score. Leerink Partners initiated coverage on June 22 with an Outperform and a $10 target — notable given it's the most recent action. The mean price target is $15.45, implying more than 400% upside to the current price, though the target range is wide and several analysts have trimmed their numbers since May's earnings print. HC Wainwright cut from $25 to $20 and Citizens moved from $14 to $11 after Q1 results disappointed on EPS. The bull case rests on pemvidutide's dual GLP-1/glucagon mechanism in MASH, roughly $340 million in pro-forma cash to fund Phase 3, and a breakthrough therapy designation that opens expedited regulatory dialogue. Bears counter that the MASH regulatory pathway is genuinely uncharted — no drug has been approved in the indication — and that Phase 3 capital requirements could mean further dilution from a stock already beaten down 44% from January levels.
Insider buying has been consistent and directional throughout the downturn. The CEO Jerome Durso bought 15,000 shares at $3.14 on April 1, adding to a 20,000-share purchase at $3.54 in March. The CFO Gregory Weaver made open-market purchases in both March and April as well. Net insider buying over the trailing 90 days totals 134,000 shares for roughly $623,000 in aggregate value — modest in dollar terms for a $3 stock, but notable in that the two most senior executives have been buyers at current levels rather than sellers. The prior CEO Vipin Garg sold shares in January at $5.60, but those sales coincided with an equity award, a common pattern.
Next in focus is the August 7 earnings print, the first since the May report that triggered a 5% one-day drop and an 8.4% five-day decline. The question heading into that release is whether any update on the Phase 2 alcohol use disorder readout or Phase 3 MASH enrollment data shifts the bear calculus — with 45% of the float short, any catalyst strong enough to change the narrative on the regulatory path would confront a very crowded trade.
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