Cannae Holdings enters July with shorts unwinding and the stock up 4.4% on the week — yet the gap between the share price and underlying asset value remains the central tension for investors.
Short sellers have been pulling back meaningfully. Positions dropped 11% over the past week to 7.1% of the free float, continuing a decline from a peak near 9% in mid-June. The retreat has been consistent — short interest fell every day from June 23 onward. At the same time, the borrow market shows no stress at all: availability sits at roughly 408%, meaning there are more than four shares available to borrow for every one already lent out. Cost to borrow is a negligible 0.5%. That combination — shorts leaving and plenty of room for more to come in if sentiment shifts — suggests the week's covering was opportunistic rather than forced. There is no squeeze dynamic here.
Options positioning adds an unusual wrinkle. The put/call ratio of 0.028 is essentially in the floor of its 52-week range, and a z-score of 2.1 above the 20-day mean signals a statistically stretched call-heavy posture. The absolute level is tiny — CNNE has thin options volume — but the skew makes clear that what options activity does exist leans decisively toward calls. That reads as a narrow group of investors expressing upside conviction through derivatives rather than broad defensive hedging ahead of the August 10 earnings date.
The Street's view has been persistently bullish but directionless on catalysts. RBC has maintained an Outperform rating while cutting its target twice since early 2026, most recently to $16, implying roughly 11% upside from the current $14.40. Stephens reinstated coverage in April with an Overweight and a $17 target, a slightly more constructive read. The bull case rests on NAV discount compression — the stock trades at 0.72x book — and management's stated intent to streamline the portfolio around the Black Knight Football Club and simplify the holding structure. The bear case is the obverse: without a clear monetization event or timeline, a holding company discount can persist indefinitely, and the recent EPS momentum score of just 9 out of 100 reflects how little near-term earnings progress is in the mix. The company is loss-making on a trailing basis (PE and EV/EBITDA are both deeply negative), which leaves the entire investment case anchored to NAV rather than earnings.
Founder William Foley retains a 10.5% stake with no recent change, providing a degree of alignment. CEO Ryan Caswell sold shares in both February and March, though the transactions coincided with stock awards and the significance scores are low — routine rather than directional. The short score of 62.4 has drifted down from 67 in mid-June, tracking the unwinding short interest and softening momentum.
The next focal point is the August 10 earnings release. The most recent print in May knocked the stock 5.3% in a single day and 6.8% over the following week — a pattern worth keeping in mind. What to watch between now and then is whether any portfolio announcement, particularly around the football club or the restaurant business, gives the market a concrete hook to start closing that book-value gap.
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