Arcus Biosciences has gained 22% over the past month and 9% on the week, yet short sellers are simultaneously adding to positions at the fastest pace in months — a tension that defines the setup heading into August earnings.
The short side has been unusually active. Short interest climbed nearly 30% over the past 30 days, reaching 10.8% of the free float — a level that qualifies as genuinely elevated for a mid-cap biotech. Over just the past week, that position grew another 4.4%, now representing around 13.3 million shares. Despite the building pressure, borrowing remains cheap at 0.45% annually, and availability is extremely loose at 833% — meaning there are roughly eight shares available to borrow for every one currently lent out. The short score, running at 64.1, has been range-bound in the low-to-mid 60s all month, suggesting the bearish thesis is persistent rather than panicked. Shorts are not squeezed; they are methodically sizing up.
Options traders, however, are telling the opposite story. The put/call ratio collapsed to 0.18 — more than two standard deviations below its 20-day average of 0.38, and close to the lowest reading of the past year. That is one of the most call-heavy postures in the stock's recent history. The shift happened sharply around June 24-25, when the PCR dropped from the 0.34 range to below 0.19 and held there. Equity options buyers are overwhelmingly positioned for continued upside, even as short sellers pile in on the other side.
The Street leans constructive but with notable divergence on conviction. The consensus sits at Buy with a mean target of $35.75 — modest upside from the current $30.83. LifeSci Capital initiated at Outperform with a $46 target in early June, the most aggressive call on the board. Goldman Sachs raised its target to $34 after Q1 results in early May, maintaining Buy. Morgan Stanley went the other way, raising its target to $22 while holding Equal-Weight — leaving a wide gap between the bulls and the only meaningful cautious voice among recent movers. Truist also raised to $35 and reaffirmed Buy in mid-May. The bull case centres on casdatifan's potential in renal cell carcinoma and a peak revenue estimate of roughly $2.9 billion; the bear case points to Merck's belzutifan already entrenched in the post-IO space and the binary risk around the PRISM-1 Phase III readout in pancreatic cancer. The analyst recommendation differential factor score ranks in the 93rd percentile — the Street's directional lean is unusually strong relative to the broader universe.
One structural detail worth flagging: Gilead Sciences holds approximately 25% of shares outstanding and has not moved that position in the most recent filing period. That anchor stake constrains both the effective float and any acquisition-related optionality in the short term. On the insider side, founder and President Juan Jaen has been a consistent seller through late June, offloading shares across multiple transactions between June 22 and June 24 at prices in the $27–$30 range. CFO Robert Goeltz also sold in May. Net insider activity over the past 90 days is a modest positive in share-count terms, but recent transactions at the top of a rally carry their own signal. These are small-scale planned disposals rather than exits, but the timing against the stock's monthly surge is worth noting.
Recent earnings reactions have been mixed. The most recent print on June 11 delivered a one-day gain of 7.6% and a five-day follow-through of nearly 10%. The prior quarter, reported May 5, produced a near-flat one-day move and a five-day drift of -4.4%. The next print is scheduled for August 7, and with trial readouts — particularly around casdatifan and PRISM-1 — likely to dominate the narrative, the earnings call will be as much about pipeline disclosures as quarterly financials.
The August 7 print is the focal point: the gap between call-heavy options positioning and a short interest running at a 30-day high makes the stock unusually sensitive to whatever catalyst resolves that disagreement first.
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