DOW just had its worst week in months — down nearly 10% to $27.36 — and the analyst community chose the final day of June to deliver its most aggressive verdict yet.
RBC Capital downgraded the stock to Sector Perform from Outperform on July 1, slashing its target from $51 to $28. That is a brutal revision: the same analyst raised his target to $51 just two months ago, in the wake of the April earnings print. The about-face lands as B of A Securities — which has held an Underperform rating — trimmed its own target further to $29, now converging with RBC near current market prices. Mizuho cut to $35 while staying Neutral. Strip away a handful of targets set before the stock's collapse and the consensus mean of $39.56 overstates how the active Street feels right now. The three freshest moves cluster in the $28–$35 range, barely above where shares are trading. That is not a Street holding the line — that is a Street walking a rating down toward the exit.
Short sellers have read the same memo. Short interest climbed 17% in a single week to 4.3% of the free float — the sharpest weekly build in several months. Over the past month the position has grown by nearly a quarter. At 30.7 million shares short against FINRA's fortnightly confirmation of 30.7 million, the estimate carries high confidence. The borrow market remains completely accommodating. Availability is extraordinarily loose at 3,745% — meaning there are roughly 37 shares available to borrow for every one already out on loan. Cost to borrow is negligible at 0.40%, having drifted lower from a brief mid-June tick toward 0.56%. There is no friction whatsoever for anyone who wants to add to a short position here, and they are adding.
Options sentiment has been persistently defensive, though not at an extreme. The put/call ratio is running at 1.10 — right in line with its 20-day average of 1.10, and therefore telling no incremental story this week. What is notable is the year-long range: the 52-week low was 0.66, and the current level is close to the upper end of that band. DOW options traders have leaned put-heavy for most of the year. That structural overhang has not resolved.
The stock's factor profile captures the deterioration clearly. EPS momentum over the past 30 days ranks in the 32nd percentile — weak, and worsening. The dividend score of 81 remains a technical support point, though the dividend history in the data is stale and at $27.36 the yield question is increasingly about sustainability rather than attraction. The price-to-book multiple has compressed to 1.32, down roughly 0.20 in the past month. At an EV/EBITDA of 6.1x, the stock is not expensive, but commodity chemicals multiples typically compress when the earnings cycle is deteriorating — and bear case concerns about polyethylene margin pressure, elevated energy costs, and tariff uncertainty remain fully intact. Closest peer LYB fell 8.6% on the week, confirming this is a sector-wide reset rather than a DOW-specific shock. OLN dropped 7.6% over the same period. The sole outlier was CF, which gained 6% — a fertiliser name benefiting from different commodity dynamics entirely.
The next test is the Q2 earnings print, scheduled for July 23. After April's release the stock fell less than 1% on the day but recovered 4.3% over the following week — suggesting that when expectations are already low enough, the reaction can be muted. Whether that pattern holds after a 19% monthly drawdown and a fresh downgrade to near-spot targets is what July 23 will settle.
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