Fastly delivered a strong 10% gain over the past week, closing at $18.36. Yet short interest remains stubbornly high at 13.6% of free float — and that tension is the story heading into August earnings.
Short interest has climbed roughly 18% over the past month, even as the stock has recovered off its lows. The position count has ticked down marginally this week, about 1% from last week's level, but the absolute level stays elevated: more than 20 million shares are currently borrowed against the company. The lending market, however, tells a softer story. Availability is loose at 532% — meaning there are more than five shares available to borrow for every one already lent out — and that ratio has actually tightened somewhat over the past week as short demand quietly edged higher. Cost to borrow is low at 0.45%, up 15% on the week but still well within the easy-borrow range. There is no squeeze pressure here. Options sentiment has drifted slightly more defensive, with the put/call ratio at 0.89, modestly above its 20-day average of 0.85, but the z-score of 0.59 flags nothing extreme. Shorts are maintaining meaningful exposure, but the borrow market is giving them little grief.
The Street's stance is cautious and fragmented. The consensus sits at hold, with six analysts there and only one outperform. Recent analyst activity — all dating from early May, now about eight weeks stale — showed a split: Citigroup nearly doubled its target to $25 after a sharp prior underestimate, while RBC trimmed to $18. Keybanc sits at $27 with an Overweight, the most optimistic current rating in the group. The mean target of $24.11 implies about 31% upside from the current price, but that average is being pulled up by the Evercore ISI initiation at $32 in April and Keybanc's raised target. Bulls point to AI-driven edge workloads and potential entry into Inferencing-as-a-Service as Fastly's next growth leg. Bears focus on the competitive pressure from better-capitalised cloud platforms and a price target that, at 6x CY27E revenue, still prices in aggressive execution. The EV/EBITDA multiple of 23x has eased modestly over 30 days, and the 90-day EPS momentum factor ranks in the 88th percentile — one of the stronger datapoints in the factor profile — though EPS surprise sits near the bottom of the universe at just the 6th percentile, a reminder of how often expectations have outrun delivery.
Insider selling has been consistent and worth noting. The CEO sold shares on June 3rd at around $20–$21. The division President sold roughly 76,000 shares across two transactions in mid-June at $17.77–$18.15. The Founder and CTO has been a steady seller. Net insider activity over the past 90 days amounts to a net sale of around $5.5 million. The transactions are modest in absolute size relative to the company, and some are likely tied to pre-arranged plans, but the direction is one-way: insiders have been consistent sellers into any price strength.
The earnings history gives this setup real weight. Fastly's last quarterly print on May 6th was severe: the stock fell nearly 40% in a single session and extended to a 43% loss over the following five days. The prior quarter on June 3rd saw a more contained 4% one-day drop and a 10% five-day loss. Both reactions were negative. With the next earnings event set for August 5th, the current short base of 13.6% of float will be watching closely whether the recent price recovery is fundamental or simply a relief bounce from deeply oversold levels — and whether cost-to-borrow and availability begin to tighten meaningfully in the weeks ahead as that date approaches.
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