LI enters July with a striking divergence: the lending pool for its ADR has essentially run dry even as the stock itself has collapsed more than 21% over the past month to $11.74.
The most arresting data point this week is availability, not price. The borrow market for LI is about as tight as it gets — availability has fallen to just 0.2%, meaning for every 500 shares already lent out, fewer than one remains available to borrow. That is close to the 52-week low of 0.04% touched on June 24, and the week-on-week collapse is severe: availability was running near 6.4% on June 23 before dropping sharply to near zero. Cost to borrow has risen roughly 34% over the past month to 2.1%, consistent with genuine scarcity in the lending market. Short interest sits near 24.2 million shares, down about 4% on the week but up 9% over the past month — the direction-of-travel is still building on a 30-day basis, even as some recent trimming has appeared. The ORTEX short score of 62.5, while down slightly from 63.6 earlier in the week, ranks in only the 9th percentile of the broader universe on short score rank, and the utilization rank sits at the 1st percentile — among the most fully borrowed names tracked. The setup is one of extreme borrow exhaustion rather than aggressive new short accumulation.
Options positioning tells a calmer story by contrast, and the gap is worth noting. The put/call ratio edged up to 0.52 on Tuesday, modestly above its 20-day average of 0.48 and less than one standard deviation above the mean. That is far from the defensive extreme — the 52-week high PCR of 1.16 shows what genuine fear looks like on this name. What's notable is the direction of travel in PCR over the past six weeks: it has been drifting lower since late May when it was running above 0.62, suggesting options traders have actually become less bearish on the way down, even as the stock dropped through $14 toward $11.74. That combination — borrow nearly exhausted, options not particularly stretched — implies the pressure is concentrated in the lending market rather than in the derivatives book.
The Street has spent the past six months steadily cutting estimates and targets. HSBC trimmed its target to $15.60 from $17.20 as recently as June 10, maintaining a Hold. Barclays cut from $18 to $14 in late May, also keeping Equal-Weight. JP Morgan holds an Underweight with a $15.50 target. The mean target across the analyst panel is $125 — a figure that appears to reflect a significant currency or data mismatch with the ADR price of $11.74 and should be set aside. What is clear directionally is that the firms tracking this name most closely have been reducing targets since at least December 2025, when HSBC downgraded from Buy to Hold and Barclays cut from $24 to $18. The one recent positive was Macquarie upgrading to Neutral from Underperform on May 29. Factor scores add some nuance: EPS momentum ranks in the 99th percentile on both 30-day and 90-day measures, and analyst recommendation differential scores in the 94th percentile — suggesting the earnings revision picture has been improving even as price targets fall.
The earnings calendar frames what comes next. The last two results — March and May — both produced immediate declines of around 5% on the day, with five-day losses extending to between 6.5% and 7.7%. The next print is scheduled for August 27. Between now and then, the more immediate question is whether the borrow exhaustion resolves through short covering or whether lenders free up new supply. Peer context adds pressure: TSLA gained more than 10% on the week and XPEV rose nearly 4%, leaving LI as the clear laggard among US-listed EV names in the final days of June.
How availability evolves over the coming sessions — whether it stays pinned near zero or reopens as shorts cover — is the clearest indicator of whether the current borrow squeeze has further to run.
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