Options traders are calling a different tune from short sellers at FMC Corporation. The put/call ratio just hit its lowest reading in two years — even as short interest sits near a multi-year high.
The PCR closed at 0.31 on July 1. That is a 2-year low. It sits more than two standard deviations below the 20-day mean of 0.36, with a z-score of -2.03. Options positioning is as bullish as it has been in at least two years — yet 16.9% of the free float is short.
Both camps cannot be right. That tension is what makes the setup worth watching ahead of the July 29 earnings date.
Since the previous note yesterday, the headline figures are unchanged in direction. Short interest remains at 16.9% of float — up 63% over the past month. The ORTEX short score has climbed further to 71.0, its highest reading in the available history, up from 59.5 a week ago.
The borrow market continues to tighten. Availability stood at 157% as of June 30 — down from over 1,000% just three weeks ago. That is still within the "tight" range, but the pace of compression has been sharp. Cost to borrow more than doubled over the week to 0.88%.
Short sellers are not covering. They are adding.
The 2-year low in PCR is not a gradual drift. It is a sharp move. The ratio has fallen from around 0.39 in early June to 0.31 now, compressing steadily as call volume has outpaced puts.
Analysts offer partial support for the bull case. The consensus remains "hold," but the mean price target sits at $16.63 — against a current price of $10.95. Goldman Sachs carries a Buy rating with a $21 target. Mizuho rates it Outperform with a $20 target. The implied upside from consensus alone is over 50%.
FMC's own guidance points to roughly $600 million in EBITDA for H2 2026, driven by Latin America seasonality and channel sell-in recovery. That is the options traders' thesis in a sentence.
The CEO, Pierre Brondeau, sold 34,177 shares on June 11 at $10.80. That sale adds a note of caution to the bull framing.
The July 29 earnings print is the flashpoint. The last two post-earnings moves were -5.3% and +1.2% on the day, with 5-day moves of -12.9% and -6.6% respectively. Short sellers appear to be positioned for a repeat. Options traders are positioned for something different.
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