Frontier Group Holdings was already the most-watched airline short this week. Now the borrow market is starting to reflect it.
The cost to borrow ULCC jumped to 1.61% on July 1 — up 179% in a single week. That follows a sustained period where CTB had been anchored between 0.52% and 0.80%. The move is sharp enough to signal genuine new demand for borrow, not noise.
Since our last note, the picture has shifted. Short interest has climbed further to 10.5% of free float — up 18% over the past week and the highest level in the current data series. Around 24 million shares are now short. That is a meaningful commitment in an airline trading below $8.
What has changed since yesterday's article: CTB has nearly tripled from the 0.71% level noted then. The move implies fresh short demand is arriving faster than available supply can absorb it comfortably.
Availability has tightened to 174% — down from 244% just three days ago and from 223% on June 30. That is still within the normal range, but the directional move is clear. More than 42 million shares remain available to borrow, so there is no mechanical squeeze pressure yet. But the trend is moving the wrong way for shorts who need cheap, easy borrow.
Three separate analyst houses raised price targets in the last ten days. Citigroup lifted its target to $9 (from $5) on June 26, while both Barclays and UBS moved to $7 (from $4). None upgraded their ratings — Barclays stays Underweight, Citi and UBS remain Neutral. The consensus target of $6.17 now sits below Tuesday's close of $7.73, meaning the stock has run through the average analyst target.
That is a notable tension. Analysts are raising targets into the rally but not yet turning bullish. The stock has outrun their revised expectations within days of the revisions being published.
The put/call ratio sits at 1.03 — matching its 52-week high and more than 1.4 standard deviations above the 20-day mean of 0.75. The PCR was below 0.60 as recently as mid-June. The sustained elevation over the past week suggests this is structural positioning, not a one-day spike.
Earnings are due August 3. The last print produced a 16.9% one-day move.
See the live data behind this article on ORTEX.
Open ULCC on ORTEX →ORTEX Market Intelligence content is generated by AI from a snapshot of ORTEX's proprietary data. Content is informational only and does not constitute investment advice.
