Applied Materials fell 7.4% on July 2 to $603. The put-call ratio jumped to 1.10 the same day — a two-standard-deviation move above the 20-day mean.
The options signal is the sharpest single data point right now. It sits at a z-score of 2.64 against a 20-day mean of 1.00. The 52-week high on the PCR is 1.20, so Thursday's reading is not a record — but it is a meaningful spike, and it arrived on the same day as the largest single-session decline in AMAT's recent run.
This was not an AMAT-specific move. Peers fell hard on the same session. LRCX dropped 10.2%. KLAC fell 11.5%. MKSI declined 11.1%. UCTT was the worst performer, down 17.8%. The breadth of the sell-off points to sector rotation rather than company-specific news. AMAT's 7.4% decline was actually the smallest of the group.
The stock is now down 9.7% on the week. It remains up 31.6% over one month — the rally from early June is still largely intact. The mean analyst price target of $578.91 now sits below the current $603 close, continuing the dynamic noted in recent ORTEX coverage: the stock has repeatedly overtaken upgraded targets.
Short interest is 2.79% of free float — low. It has risen 7.5% over the past week, adding roughly 1.6 million shares. That is worth noting, but at this float level the short book is not a primary driver. The lending market remains very loose. Availability is at 8,658% — far more borrowable shares exist than are currently borrowed. Cost to borrow is 0.40%, essentially negligible.
CEO Gary Dickerson sold approximately $50 million in shares across June 29–30 at prices between $700 and $736. The 90-day net selling across all insiders totals roughly $163.8 million. That activity predates the current pullback but is now a visible part of the picture as the stock retreats from those elevated sale prices. Dickerson's June 30 sales were executed above $735 — a level the stock is now trading roughly 18% below.
Earnings are scheduled for August 13. The last print produced a negligible one-day move. The question between now and then is whether the options hedging visible in Thursday's PCR spike reflects durable defensive positioning or a one-session reaction to the sell-off. A PCR sustained above 1.10 would suggest the former.
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