Nebius Group now trades at $195.19 — down 29% on the week and 14% on the month — with short sellers firmly in the money, the borrow pool partially reopening, and Q2 earnings three weeks away.
The short position has not moved. Short interest is 24.0% of free float, essentially unchanged from the 23.8–23.9% readings flagged in prior notes going back to late June. That static quality is the key data point: shorts added steadily through NBIS's rally to $276, held through the June dip, held through the subsequent bounce, and are now holding through the sharpest leg of the decline. The position is up 17.3% in size over the past month. There is no sign of covering. The ORTEX short score of 70.2 reinforces the picture — it has barely moved over the past two weeks, consistent with a book that is entrenched rather than in flux.
The borrow market has shifted materially since earlier this week. Availability recovered to 21.3% by Tuesday, up from near-zero readings that dominated much of late June and early July — as low as 3.6% just days ago when the lending pool was effectively exhausted. That partial reopening reflects shares being returned to the pool as the stock falls, rather than new supply appearing. Cost to borrow remains modest at 1.2%, roughly double where it was a month ago but not at levels that would pressure a short position meaningfully. The availability rank sits in the 1st percentile of the universe — still extremely tight relative to peers, even after the improvement. Options positioning leans defensive: the put/call ratio is 1.16, above its 20-day average of 1.05, though the z-score of 0.84 keeps it well below last week's 52-week high of 1.29 hit on July 2.
The Street remains constructive despite the selloff. The most recent analyst action came from B of A Securities on June 8, raising its target to $280 with a Buy rating — a move consistent with the broader post-May-earnings consensus reset. Citi carried the highest target at $287 following its May 15 raise from $169. The mean price target across the analyst panel is $244, which implies the stock has now fallen through consensus fair value. Morgan Stanley is the outlier, sitting at Equal-Weight with a $144 target — the only major firm below the current price. Bulls point to Nebius's vertically-integrated AI infrastructure model, the Microsoft and Meta partnerships, and exceptional revenue growth. Bears focus on limited profitability disclosure, the capital intensity of GPU cloud buildout, and the structural disadvantage of competing against hyperscalers with deeper balance sheets.
The insider angle remains the most uncomfortable data point. CEO Arkady Volozh, Chief Level Officer Andrey Korolenko, and CTO Danila Shtan collectively sold approximately $23M of stock on July 1 at $235.45 — days before the sharpest drop. Chairman Boynton sold a further $1.1M in mid-June above $246. The 90-day net insider position is a net sale of roughly $144M with no purchases recorded against it. The founding CEO, Volozh, still holds 11.5% of shares outstanding, so the sales represent trimming rather than exit. But the timing — at the top of a run that has since unraveled by nearly a third — will not be forgotten quickly.
Q2 earnings are scheduled for July 28. The last print on May 13 produced a one-day move of +23.5%, followed by a five-day gain of 7.1%. The print before that, on April 24, moved the stock down 7.7% on the day. The setup heading into July 28 is materially different from May: the stock enters at $195, down sharply from where it was trading when analysts set their current targets, with shorts fully positioned and the borrow pool just beginning to loosen. How much of the recent decline is priced-in disappointment versus technical selling is the question the July 28 release will begin to answer.
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