Nebius Group has recovered sharply from last week's selloff, closing Tuesday at $276.17 — up 5.75% on the day and nearly flat on the week — yet the short position has barely moved, the borrow pool remains almost entirely exhausted, and options traders are sitting at their most defensive reading of the year.
The stock's bounce is the first update worth flagging clearly relative to the previous note. Last Sunday's article caught NBIS down 16% on the week to $240. It has since clawed back almost all of that loss, rising 19.5% over the past month. Short sellers who added through June have not capitulated. Short interest is 23.8% of free float as of June 30 — fractionally lower than the 23.9% reading from June 25, but still up 13.2% week-on-week and 20.9% over the month. The short book remains at its heaviest level in the tracked history. Shorts survived the dip; now they are watching the stock press back toward recent highs.
The borrow market tells the harder story for anyone looking to add to that position. Availability has collapsed back to 3.6% — essentially fully exhausted, with only one share available for every 28 already borrowed. That matches the configuration from June 22–24, before a brief loosening to 34% on June 25 which has since completely reversed. Cost to borrow has risen 26% on the week to 1.23%, more than double the sub-0.65% levels seen in early June. The combination — near-zero availability and rising borrow cost — makes adding new short exposure operationally difficult and incrementally more expensive each day. Those already short are locked in; those wanting to join them face real friction.
Options positioning is layered on top, and it reinforces the caution. The put/call ratio is 1.20 — more than two standard deviations above its 20-day mean of 1.01, and matching the 52-week high printed on June 29. That makes this the most defensively skewed options market NBIS has seen in over a year. The z-score of 2.25 is notable: it signals that demand for downside protection has moved well beyond seasonal noise and into genuine positioning. Taken alongside the locked borrow pool, the setup looks charged from both sides — bears are dug in but can't easily add, while options buyers are paying up for protection into July.
The Street is broadly constructive but with visible splits on price. BofA's Tal Liani raised his target to $280 on June 8, the most recent bellwether action, and the stock has now essentially traded through that level. Citigroup is the most aggressive at $287. Morgan Stanley is the outlier, holding an Equal-Weight with a $144 target — a significant disconnect from the current price that reflects genuine structural skepticism rather than a stale number. The mean target across the analyst panel sits at $245, which is now below where the stock is trading. BNP Paribas initiated at Neutral with a $255 target in early June. The bull case centres on the $17 billion Microsoft contract and vertically integrated AI compute positioning. The bear case is customer concentration: one contract is not a diversified business, and new capacity coming online creates execution risk if Nebius cannot fill it with additional clients.
Earnings are the next hard catalyst. The next print is scheduled for July 28. The most recent Q1 report on May 13 produced a +23.5% single-day move. The prior quarter's print in April saw a -7.7% reaction. That asymmetry — a large beat followed by a more modest miss — underlines how binary this stock remains around results. With short interest at record levels, options at a year-high defensive skew, and the borrow pool fully exhausted, the July 28 print is the event that forces resolution. Shorts cannot easily exit quickly; longs cannot borrow more easily to hedge. Watch whether the put/call ratio holds above 1.0 through the next four weeks, and whether any loosening in borrow availability signals a change of conviction from either side.
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