GRPN has now gained 64% in a month and trades at $26.61 — yet the short position that has shadowed this name all summer is still fully intact, and the brief loosening in the lending market that looked meaningful four days ago has already reversed.
The most striking development this week is how quickly availability collapsed after July 3. That session posted 9.2% availability — the most room in the lending pool since late June. By July 7 it was back to 1.0%, and by July 8 it had tightened to 0.6%. Thursday's reading of 4.4% is a mild reprieve from that extreme, but the pattern is now well-established: any loosening in the borrow pool gets absorbed fast. The 52-week low availability was 0.51%, and the stock has spent most of the summer within a few decimal points of that floor. Cost to borrow fell 18% on the week to 2.19%, its lowest in roughly six weeks — a signal that the immediate borrow pressure eased slightly, though borrowing costs are still running at nearly double their early-June level. Short interest itself barely moved. At 31.1% of free float — essentially unchanged from last week's 30.5% — bears have not covered into the rally. An 8.3-day days-to-cover reading from the most recent FINRA settlement means any forced unwind would take time and volume to execute.
Options traders are not positioned defensively. The put/call ratio of 0.37 runs slightly below its 20-day average of 0.38, and at a z-score of -0.71 there is no sign of elevated demand for downside protection. The PCR is near its 52-week low of 0.36. Call positioning dominates, which is consistent with the momentum the stock has built — but also means there is limited options-market hedging against a reversal. That combination of a fully short-loaded float, near-zero borrow availability, and call-heavy options positioning creates a structure where modest negative surprises can carry outsized consequences.
The Street view is sharply split, and recent analyst data adds context worth flagging with a caveat: the consensus price target of $26.33 is as of late May, when the stock was well below current levels. Goldman Sachs, the only bellwether firm with a recent action (a target raise to $13 in May, maintaining Sell), is sitting roughly 50% below the current price. Bullish coverage from Northland Capital Markets and Roth Capital last year had targets of $44 and $47 respectively — also now stale. The bull case rests on improving cash conversion and bookings momentum. The bear case points to management guidance for billings declines of 2.5–5% and revenue drops of 5–7.5%, with EBITDA under pressure. Neither camp has updated formally in several weeks. The ORTEX short score of 76.3 places this name in the 4th percentile on short score rank — meaning the data flags it as one of the more heavily shorted names in the universe — while the utilization rank scores 0, the absolute extreme.
Ownership adds a layer of complexity. Pale Fire Capital holds 26.8% of shares, making the free float relatively thin. CEO Dusan Senkypl sold 1.35 million shares at $16.54 on June 11 — a $22.3 million transaction that now looks early given the stock's subsequent move to $26.61. His reported holding remains 7.5% of the company. Insider net activity over the past 90 days runs to a net $23.7 million of selling, almost entirely that one CEO transaction. The sale came at a 38% discount to where the stock trades today, which may complicate future insider signaling in the near term.
The next earnings date is August 6. The last two prints saw the stock move 9% and 12% the following day, both to the upside. With 31% of the float short, availability near the floor, and calls outnumbering puts by nearly three to one, the setup into that release is among the most charged in this name's recent history — and the data going into the print is what to watch most closely between now and then.
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