TLT is telling a consistent story in July: short sellers are pulling back, and the borrowing market has never been more accommodating in recent memory.
The borrow availability trend has continued well beyond where it stood ten days ago. Availability has now reached 906%, up from 386% at the end of June and 148% in late June — meaning there are now roughly nine shares sitting idle in the lending pool for every one currently borrowed. That is an extraordinary loosening. Cost to borrow has also continued to ease, running at 0.36% this week, down from above 0.54% in mid-June. Borrow conditions are about as frictionless as they get for a high-profile short target, which removes one traditional argument for forced covering.
Short interest has kept declining. From a peak near 104 million shares in early June, the position has unwound to roughly 91 million — down around 8.5% over the past month. At 16.3% of free float, TLT remains one of the more heavily shorted instruments in the fixed income ETF universe. But the direction of travel is clearly lower. The ORTEX short score has also dropped steadily this week, falling from 66 in late June to 55 — its lowest reading in the current data window. That composite reading reflects the combined signal of declining short interest, looser borrow, and reduced lending pressure.
Options positioning is modestly defensive but not alarming. The put/call ratio is running at 0.72, a touch above its 20-day average of 0.70 and about 1.1 standard deviations above the mean — elevated, but well short of the extremes seen elsewhere. The 52-week range for the ratio runs from 0.59 to 0.81, placing the current reading comfortably in the middle rather than at a stress point. Options traders are cautious, not panicked.
On the ownership side, the institutional picture shows divergence at the top. Northwestern Mutual and Managed Account Advisors added shares in Q1, while Bank of America trimmed aggressively — cutting 24.8 million shares to 40.9 million, still the second-largest holder. Rafferty Asset Management, which runs leveraged and inverse rate products, also cut its position by 5.8 million shares. That Rafferty trim is interesting given the firm's typical use of TLT as a directional rate vehicle; a reduction there may reflect a tactical pullback from an aggressive long-rates-higher bet. Monthly dividends have been consistent, averaging around $0.32 per share through the first half of 2026.
The price has drifted 1.2% lower on the week to $84.47, and is down around 0.8% over the past month — a slow grind rather than a sharp move. With short sellers continuing to pare exposure and borrow availability at levels not seen all year, what matters next is whether the macro backdrop — particularly any shift in rate expectations or Treasury auction dynamics — gives remaining shorts a reason to rebuild or bulls a catalyst to push duration back into favour.
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