Two downgrades in two weeks have shifted the analyst mood on ABCB — and the lending data is moving in the same direction, just weeks before July 23 earnings.
Piper Sandler downgraded Ameris Bancorp to Neutral from Overweight on July 13. The price target held at $96. Raymond James had already cut its rating to Market Perform from Outperform on July 1.
That's two sell-side downgrades in 12 days. The consensus now sits at hold, with four hold ratings and one outperform. The mean price target is $95.17, against a last close of $90.41 — roughly 5% upside on paper, but shrinking room for error.
Truist Securities bucked the trend. Analyst John McDonald raised his target to $92 from $89 on July 10, while keeping a hold rating. That's a tighter spread between target and current price than most of the analyst pack.
The bear case centers on slowing balance sheet growth, declining fee income from the retail mortgage division, and a provision for credit losses that came in above expectations. The bull case rests on acquisitions, cost control, and net interest margin expansion.
Short interest has risen 20.8% over the past month to 4.1% of free float. The pace accelerated last week — up 12.9% in five trading days. The move lands short interest at its highest level in the recent sample window.
Cost to borrow rose 73% over the past week to 0.49%. That sounds dramatic. It isn't, in absolute terms — 0.49% is still a very low borrow cost. The lending market remains wide open. Availability stands at 1,465%, meaning there are roughly 14 shares available to borrow for every one currently lent out. There is no borrow squeeze here.
The short score sits at 41.4, down from 45.3 on June 30. The direction is softening, not intensifying, on that measure.
The put-call ratio rose to 0.15 on July 10. That's 1.9 standard deviations above the 20-day mean of 0.08. It's the highest PCR reading in two weeks, though still well below the 52-week high of 1.25.
This is a low-PCR stock. Even at 0.15, the options market isn't expressing strong bearish conviction. The move is notable relative to its own recent baseline — not alarming in absolute terms.
Earnings land on July 23. Recent history: ABCB moved -0.1% the day after its May 21 report and +1.5% after its April 30 print.
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