ABCB enters the back half of June with its best monthly momentum in months — up 4% on the week and nearly 6% over the past month to $88.95 — while short sellers have been quietly stepping back and the borrow market remains about as relaxed as it gets.
The positioning picture here is almost entirely benign. Short interest has fallen roughly 5% over the past month, now representing 3.4% of the free float at around 2.3 million shares. That's a modest and shrinking bear conviction. Borrow costs are low at 0.52%, though they have nudged about 12% higher over the past month — the most notable change in an otherwise unremarkable lending market. Availability is extraordinarily loose at over 2,100% of short interest, meaning there are more than 21 shares available to borrow for every one currently lent out. The ORTEX short score of 39.8 ranks in just the 24th percentile for short positioning, reinforcing the picture of a stock where bearish structural pressure is minimal. Options traders are equally relaxed — the put/call ratio of 0.08 is barely above its 20-day average and drifts near the low end of its 52-week range, suggesting no meaningful demand for downside protection right now.
The Street picture is modestly constructive, though not without caveats. The most recent analyst moves came in late April, when DA Davidson lifted its target to $98 while maintaining a Buy, and both Stephens and Truist raised their targets while holding neutral-to-cautious stances at Equal-Weight and Hold respectively. The consensus mean target of $93.86 sits roughly 5% above the current price — a narrow gap that implies the Street sees fair value as roughly here, not materially higher. Bulls point to net loan growth, a potential acquisition-driven market share story, and a management team with a track record of execution. Bears flag rising non-performing loan projections, pressure on the efficiency ratio as expenses grow, and CET-1 concerns tied to buyback activity. Valuation multiples have drifted higher — the P/E is now around 12.5x and the price-to-book at 1.3x, both up meaningfully over the past month — so the re-rating has already started happening. The dividend score ranks in the 78th percentile, though the last confirmed dividend data predates 2023 and should not be treated as current.
The peer group is moving in the same direction, which tells its own story. UBSI gained 4% on the week, AUB and ASB both rose over 6%, and COLB added more than 5%. ABCB's 4% weekly gain is solid but not an outlier — this looks like a sector-wide bid rather than a stock-specific catalyst. That framing matters: it means the stock's recent strength is being driven by the regional banking tape broadly, not by anything uniquely positive happening at Ameris right now.
The next focal point is Q2 earnings, scheduled for July 30. With the stock now trading at or just below the lower end of analyst targets, the July print becomes a test of whether the loan growth and margin story can sustain the re-rating that has already occurred. The gap between bulls ($98 target) and the more cautious Street ($89–$90) is tight enough that an in-line result may not be enough to extend the run.
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