BX arrives at its July 17 earnings report with a meaningfully different short-side picture than it carried into last week's preview — short interest has risen sharply, analysts are trimming targets, and the stock has slipped back from its recent highs.
The most important data shift since the July 4 article is in short positioning. Short interest climbed 21% over the past week to 3.1% of the free float — up from the 2.5% level reported in the prior note. That move reversed the earlier decline and pushed positions to their highest reading in the 45-day history available. The one-day jump on July 10 alone was 15%, adding roughly 3 million shares in a single session. Despite that build, the borrow market remains effectively unconstricted: availability is running near 1,933% of current short interest, meaning there are close to twenty shares available for every one already borrowed, and the cost to borrow is just 0.44%. The short-side pressure is growing in volume terms, but the lending market offers no squeeze mechanism to punish it.
Options positioning has also reversed from the less-defensive posture described a week ago. The put/call ratio moved back up to 1.47 — essentially back in line with its 20-day average of 1.46 — after the spike lower that characterised the prior week. The z-score is near zero, which means hedging appetite has normalised rather than capitulated. The stock itself has given back ground, easing roughly 1% over the week to $122.04, and is flat over the past month. Peers and both gained more than 3% over the same period, a divergence that may partly explain the renewed short interest.
The analyst picture heading into the print is one of broadly maintained conviction but quietly reduced targets. Multiple firms — including Evercore ISI and RBC Capital on July 13 alone — trimmed price targets while keeping positive ratings. The consensus mean stands at $140.65 against a current price of $122.04, implying roughly 15% upside in aggregate, but the direction of travel on individual targets has been downward for several months. Bulls point to Blackstone's scale in credit and insurance, its diversified fee base, and forward EPS growth well above peers. Bears focus on the under-earning real estate portfolio and the drag from redemption activity limiting management fee conversion. The last earnings print, on April 23, sent the stock down 6.2% on the day and another 3.2% over the following five sessions — the pattern of post-result pressure is established, even if no two quarters are identical.
Thursday's print will test whether Blackstone's credit and private wealth momentum is sufficient to offset continued softness in real estate fees — and whether the accelerating short-side rebuild over the past week reflects informed conviction or simply a tactical hedge into a known weak-reaction history.
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