BX enters the final week before its July 17 earnings with the stock down 6% on the week, short interest still elevated from last month's aggressive build, and options hedging running at its most defensive tilt in over a month — the question now is whether the price weakness is shaking out weak longs or drawing in fresh bears.
The short-side picture has changed modestly since last week's note. The month-long surge that took SI from roughly 15.3 million shares to 21.5 million has essentially plateaued — short interest has barely moved week-on-week, down just 0.5% to 2.85% of the free float. That flatness after a 35% monthly build suggests shorts are neither pressing their advantage into the dip nor covering into it. Borrow conditions remain entirely friction-free: cost to borrow holds near 0.48%, and availability has actually loosened slightly to 1,676% — roughly 16 shares available for every one lent out — compared with 1,755% a week ago. There is no squeeze dynamic here; the lending pool is wide open and shorts face no urgency to exit.
Options tell a sharper story than short interest right now. The put/call ratio has climbed to 1.58, above its 20-day average of 1.50 and running at a z-score of 1.47 — the most elevated defensive reading in several weeks. That is still well below the 52-week high of 1.87, so this is not a panic hedge, but it marks a clear step-up from where the ratio was sitting through mid-June. Combined with the stock's 2.6% single-day drop on Tuesday, options traders appear to be buying more downside protection as the earnings date draws closer.
The Street is broadly cautious but not negative. The consensus sits at hold, with 10 hold ratings against 3 outperform calls. The most recent analyst action — TD Cowen trimming its target from $140 to $133 in May while keeping a Buy — captured the tone well: bulls have been selectively trimming their numbers without abandoning the thesis. JP Morgan cut to $136 after April's print; Morgan Stanley came down from $215 to $184 while staying Overweight. Those are large reductions in absolute terms, but the direction-of-travel is trimming rather than capitulating. The bull case rests on Blackstone's platform scale and long-term fundraising power; bears are focused on near-term fee pressure in credit and real estate, plus elevated redemptions in BCRED. The P/E of 18.5x and P/B near 10.5x have both drifted higher over the past 30 days, meaning the stock is getting cheaper on price but the multiple compression hasn't been dramatic. Factor scores flag a notable divergence: dividend rank sits in the 91st percentile, while earnings surprise (35th) and analyst recommendation differential (5th) suggest the market is not pricing in a positive earnings catalyst.
Peer context adds weight to the weakness. KKR fell 4.7% on the week, ARES dropped 10.8%, STEP shed 8.8%, and TPG lost 9%. Against that backdrop, BX's 6.1% decline represents relative outperformance, consistent with last week's peer note noting BX's comparatively lower short positioning versus the group. BAM was the outlier, essentially flat on the week — a reminder that platform mix matters as rate expectations shift.
Earnings history offers a sobering baseline. The last two quarterly prints both produced a roughly 6% next-day decline, and the five-day reaction to January's Q4 results was a 13.6% drawdown. With the July 17 date now three weeks out, the pace of put accumulation and whether short interest resumes its build — or finally starts to cover — will be the primary positioning signals to track heading into the release.
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