Block, Inc. enters the final stretch before its August 5 earnings report with the short-side retreat that began in late June now accelerating into something more decisive — and a Street growing visibly more constructive.
The short unwind has moved further since last week's note. Short interest has dropped another 25% over the past week to 2.7% of the free float, now at roughly 15 million shares — down from 20 million at the start of July and over 21 million at the June 26 peak. That is a reduction of around 6 million shares in less than three weeks. The direction has been consistent every session. The borrow market is not applying any pressure here: availability has actually loosened further this week, sitting above 5,100% of short interest — more than 354 million shares available to lend against a mere 15 million borrowed. Cost to borrow is running at 0.47%, effectively unchanged on the week, and firmly in the "easy to borrow" range. The short score has tracked this shift, falling from 37.2 at the start of July to 33.6 today — a signal that the overall short setup on this name is becoming measurably less charged. Options tell the same story: the put/call ratio at 0.57 is barely above its 20-day average, with a z-score of just 0.66, suggesting options traders are not rushing to hedge despite the earnings catalyst now three weeks out.
The Street's posture has grown notably more bullish. Barclays initiated coverage at Overweight with a $100 target on July 8 — a fresh, high-conviction entry from a bellwether name that adds weight to the constructive camp. Piper Sandler executed the most dramatic reversal of recent months, flipping from Underweight to Overweight and lifting its target from $58 to $100 at the end of June. Baird raised its target to $100 while maintaining Outperform. Morgan Stanley held Overweight and nudged its target to $98. The consensus price target stands around $92, implying roughly 15% upside to the current $80 level — a manageable gap that does not require heroic assumptions. The bull case centres on 22% gross profit growth, Cash App's 59 million monthly transacting actives, and margin expansion from tighter expense discipline. Bears point to take-rate compression, growing competition from OS-embedded wallets, and a BNPL regulatory overhang. Macquarie sits at Neutral with a $75 target, the clearest dissent in an otherwise constructive lineup.
One thread worth watching in the ownership picture: director Anthony Eisen has sold 6,000 shares every trading day for the past two weeks, a steady programme that has generated roughly $2.8 million at prices between $76 and $79. The regularity suggests a pre-planned trading plan rather than a discretionary call, and the trade significance score of 2 out of 10 is low. But the accumulated selling — on top of a separate $3.5 million sale by division head Brian Grassadonia on July 2 — means insiders have been consistent sellers into the stock's 15% one-month rally. Capital Research and Management added over 4.5 million shares as of June 30, and T. Rowe Price added 2 million in May, so institutional demand is absorbing the supply without visible disruption.
The two most recent earnings prints are worth framing as the August date approaches. The May 7 result produced a 5.7% next-day gain that faded to under 1% by day five, while the June 16 event brought a 2% decline that extended modestly over the following week. Neither was dramatic, and the pattern does not point to a stock that habitually makes large moves on results. Against that backdrop, the combination of a low PCR, a collapsing short base, and analyst targets clustered in the $93–$100 range sets a bar where execution on gross profit growth and Cash App engagement will matter more than any single surprise.
What to watch heading into August 5: whether the short unwind stabilises here — at 2.7% of float, there is less mechanical covering left — and whether the put/call ratio begins to drift higher as the earnings date draws closer and traders start to build protection.
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