JSW — Jastrzębska Spółka Węglowa — added 1.1% on Tuesday to close at PLN 26.70, yet the lending market just delivered its most extreme reading in the entire tracked history of this name, making the price bounce feel increasingly fragile.
The defining development this week is a new record low in borrow availability. Availability has collapsed to just 2.9% — meaning roughly 34 shares are lent out for every one still free to borrow. That is the tightest the pool has ever been by the data available, breaking below the prior 52-week floor of 3.8% set on June 29. The compression happened fast: availability ran above 35% as recently as June 9, fell to that 3.8% floor by month-end, briefly recovered toward 10% in early July, and has now punched through to an all-time low. For context, anything below 50% is considered very tight — at 2.9%, the lending market is effectively at capacity. Cost to borrow has eased from its mid-week peak of 10.8% to 8.4%, down 17% on the week, but that figure is still sitting well above the quiet 8.3–8.5% corridor it occupied in early June. The easing in CTB while availability tightens further suggests short sellers are holding rather than adding — the cost of maintaining existing positions has moderated, but the pool itself has never been more fully used.
The ORTEX short score has climbed to 84.5, another record high, up from 84.3 at yesterday's close and from 73 six months ago. The score draws on several converging inputs that all point the same direction. The days-to-cover rank and utilization rank sit in the bottom 3rd–4th percentile of the entire global universe. The Piotroski F-Score has slipped to 1 — a very weak reading. Return on assets runs at approximately -11.6%, and the Altman Z-score remains deep in distress territory. EPS momentum over 90 days scores in the 100th percentile — a sign that estimates have been revised sharply, though 30-day momentum has turned negative, pointing to more recent downgrades. Valuation offers some mechanical comfort: the price-to-earnings multiple has compressed to 7.2x (down 28% over the past 30 days as the stock fell), EV/EBITDA is below 2.5x, and price-to-book is 0.48x. These are not the multiples of a stock the market trusts.
The ownership picture is dominated by the Polish State Treasury, which holds 55% of shares and is a passive, structural anchor — it does not trade. Among active institutional holders, BlackRock added roughly 35,000 shares through June and American Century added 57,000, both modest moves. The float available to trade is narrow, which partly explains why the lending pool drains so quickly when short demand picks up. With the Polish state as a majority anchor and free float tightly borrowed, the conditions for sharp moves in either direction are structurally present.
Earnings are due August 20. The most recent print — May 19 — produced a 2.4% one-day decline followed by an 8.3% recovery across the subsequent five sessions, a pattern worth holding in mind. The analyst consensus carries a mean price target of PLN 22.25 — roughly 17% below the current price — though that data is 49 days old and should be treated as stale context rather than live guidance.
The next read to watch is whether availability stabilises at these record lows or recovers as it briefly did in early July. A sustained hold below 3% into the August 20 earnings date would mark the most constrained borrow environment this name has ever entered ahead of a results release.
See the live data behind this article on ORTEX.
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