Options traders have turned sharply bearish on REPL just as short sellers begin covering. The divergence is the standout story on Replimune Group right now.
The put-call ratio hit 0.71 on July 15. That is 2.47 standard deviations above its 20-day mean of 0.35. It is the highest PCR reading in 52 weeks, which peaked at 0.72. Options buyers are loading up on downside protection at an aggressive pace.
Short interest has fallen sharply. SI dropped 16.2% in one week to 27.7% of free float. That remains a very high level for any stock. The month-over-month decline is also significant — down 15.5% in 30 days.
The driver is well-known. The FDA issued a second Complete Response Letter for RP1, Replimune's flagship oncolytic immunotherapy. Multiple analysts downgraded the stock in April. Leerink cut its target from $11 to $2. JP Morgan moved to Underweight. Wedbush dropped from Outperform to Neutral with a $2 target.
Since then, Wedbush has twice raised its target — most recently to $9 on June 30. The stock trades at $9.68. The mean analyst target across the three-analyst panel sits at $10.67.
Some shorts appear to be taking profits. But the options market is not yet convinced the worst is over.
Cost to borrow jumped 80% in one week to 0.88%. That sounds alarming. Context matters. At 0.88%, the absolute cost remains low. Availability sits at 242%, meaning roughly two-and-a-half shares are available for every one already borrowed. That is a normal lending environment — not a tight one.
The CTB spike likely reflects increased demand from traders repositioning around near-term catalysts rather than a supply squeeze. Availability has actually loosened over the past month, up from lows near 155% in late June.
Earnings are scheduled for August 3. Recent earnings history is rough. The last four prints produced three negative single-day moves, with one down 5.1% and a five-day follow-through of -13.6%.
Ridgeback Capital disclosed a new 7.4 million share position as of May 14 — a meaningful new entrant. BlackRock and State Street both added shares through June 30.
Data summary
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