Three signals converged on SPCX today. The borrow market reached its most constrained point since listing. Options hedging hit a fresh 52-week extreme. The short base — already at record levels — has not budged.
Availability has dropped to 28.2%. That means roughly one share remains available for every three and a half already borrowed. This is the tightest the lending market has been since SPCX began trading.
The compression has been relentless. On June 16, availability stood at 628%. It fell below 200% by June 19. It crossed below 50% on July 1. It has not recovered since.
Cost to borrow has risen 134% over the past month to 2.14%. That is still well below the mid-June spike above 13.9%, but the direction is clear. Every week this month has closed higher than the last.
Shares short jumped from 23.3 million on July 9 to 178.3 million by July 17. That is a 664% increase in one week. The expansion has since plateaued — but there is no evidence of covering. The ORTEX short score sits at 68.0, up from 50.4 ten days ago. It has moved in a straight line.
The stock is down 35% over the past month. It closed Monday at $119.85, down 3.3% on the day and 13.9% on the week. The short base was established into weakness. It has held through more weakness.
The put/call ratio hit 1.09 on July 20. That is a 52-week high. It sits 2.2 standard deviations above the 20-day mean of 0.94. Options traders are buying protection at the most aggressive rate since the stock's listing.
The timing aligns with the borrow squeeze. As availability tightens, new short positions become harder to establish in the equity market. Some of that pressure redirects into the options market, where puts provide equivalent downside exposure without requiring a borrow.
The analyst community has not changed its view. Needham raised its target to $250 on July 15. Evercore ISI initiated at Outperform with a $230 target on July 14. The consensus mean sits at $240 — roughly double where the stock is trading today.
That gap has not narrowed. Analysts are bullish. Shorts are entrenched. The stock keeps falling. The standoff documented in previous ORTEX reports remains unresolved. Earnings are due August 6.
See the live data behind this article on ORTEX.
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