CHPY Borrow Market Splits: Cost Collapses While Shorts Hold Firm

Short sellers in CHPY are sending contradictory signals. The cost to borrow has crashed to near zero. Yet the borrow market itself is at maximum tightness.

That divergence is the story right now for the YieldMax Semiconductor Portfolio Option Income ETF.

The Cost-to-Borrow Collapse

Cost to borrow fell to -0.07% on July 20. Three days earlier it stood at 17.2%. That is not a gradual drift — it is a near-instantaneous evaporation of borrowing demand.

For context, CTB had been steady in the 6%–9% range since early June. A brief spike to 18.6% on July 16 looked like a tightening squeeze. Then it reversed completely within 72 hours.

Negative CTB is unusual. It means lenders are effectively paying borrowers to take shares. The practical interpretation: new short-selling demand has dried up almost entirely.

Short Interest Falls — But Stays High

SI % FF dropped 28.9% in one week. That is a substantial unwind. But the level remains at 50.9% of free float — still one of the highest readings for any US-listed ETF.

The one-month picture adds another layer. SI is up 52% over 30 days. Shorts built aggressively through June and into mid-July, then pulled back sharply last week. That mid-July peak — around 2.0 million shares — has now retreated to roughly 1.1 million.

Availability Tightens Despite the Retreat

Here is the contradiction. Even as short interest fell, availability tightened sharply. Availability dropped 42% in one week to 37%. The entire lending pool is fully deployed — every available share is currently on loan.

That 37% availability figure means roughly one share is available to borrow for every 1.7 already out on loan. That is a tight market by any measure, though not at its tightest: the 52-week low hit 0.87% back on June 30.

The dynamic suggests covering shorts are returning shares to lenders, but those shares are immediately being recycled — either re-lent or absorbed. Net supply available to new short sellers has not recovered meaningfully.

Options Turning Less Bearish

Put-call ratio sits at 0.49, below its 20-day average of 0.58. The PCR z-score of -1.49 indicates options positioning has shifted toward calls relative to recent norms. That aligns with the short covering narrative — some participants are reducing bearish exposure across both the lending and options markets.

The ORTEX short score eased to 63.3 from a recent peak near 72 on July 9. The decline reflects the short interest unwind, though the absolute level remains elevated.

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What to watch: Whether the CTB stays near zero as availability remains tight. A lending market that is fully deployed but not attracting new borrow demand at any price is an unusual equilibrium — and typically unstable.

• SI % of Float: 50.9% (down from 71.6% one month ago peak, up 52% over 30 days)
• Cost to borrow: -0.07% (from 17.2% three days prior)
• Availability: 37.2% (down 42% in one week; 52-week low: 0.87%)
• Short score: 63.3 (down from 72.1 on July 9)
• Put/call ratio: 0.49 (z-score: -1.49 vs 20-day mean)
• Price: $70.78, down 19.2% over one month