América Móvil heads into today's earnings print with a notable shift from the defensive setup that defined the prior two previews: short interest has retreated and options hedging has eased, yet neither signal has fully normalised.
The most meaningful change since the July 18 preview is in short positioning. Shorts fell roughly 11% from their mid-July peak — from 7.65 million shares on July 14 to 6.43 million now. That reverses the sharp build that persisted through the July 14 and July 21 prints and brings short interest back toward June levels. The borrow market reinforces the retreat: cost to borrow has dropped 17% over the past week to just 0.43%, and availability remains extremely loose at over 1,100% of shares already borrowed. There is no lending pressure of any kind, and shorts trimming into the print face no mechanical friction in covering.
Options positioning tells a softer but still cautious story. The put/call ratio has eased to 0.50 from the 0.53 reading cited in the July 18 preview — no longer above two standard deviations from its 20-day mean, but still running about 1.3 standard deviations above average. Put demand has moderated without disappearing. This is a meaningful distinction: the sustained spike that defined the lead-up to the July 14 print has not fully unwound, but it is no longer at the same intensity. The 52-week high on the PCR is 1.96, so the current reading is far from extreme on an annual basis.
The analyst backdrop offers a mixed signal on valuation. JP Morgan raised its target to $30 in May, and UBS holds a Buy with a $31.50 target — both above the current price of $26.09. Scotiabank, by contrast, trimmed its target to $20.80 at the same time, keeping a Sector Perform rating. The consensus mean target of $29.21 implies roughly 12% upside from current levels. The stock has slipped about 1.4% over the past month, a modest pullback that leaves bulls pointing to an undemanding P/E near 13x and bears watching for any deterioration in the Latin American revenue base given ongoing currency pressures across the region.
Today's print is therefore less about whether América Móvil can grow and more about whether the company's Mexican and regional subscriber metrics can hold up against a softer peso and rising competitive intensity — the answer will test whether the recent short covering was prescient or premature.
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