MCO reports Q2 results today with the stock down nearly 3% from Monday's close but still up 9% over the past month — and with the same bullish positioning structure that defined the July 18 preview largely intact.
Options traders have pulled back slightly from their most call-heavy stance of the year, but the signal remains tilted toward upside. The put/call ratio has edged up to 0.64 from the 0.56 reading four days ago, yet it still runs more than a standard deviation below its 20-day average of 0.74. That means the options market, while less aggressively positioned for a rally than it was mid-week, has not rotated into defensive hedging ahead of the print. Short interest remains low and has continued to ease — bears now hold just 1.5% of the float, down roughly 3% on the week and 19% over the past month. Borrow availability is cavernous at over 3,200%, with no squeeze dynamic in play.
The analyst debate heading into results is firmly skewed bullish, though not without dissent. JPMorgan raised its target to $600 yesterday while maintaining Overweight, and Jefferies opened coverage last week at Buy with a $610 target — the most aggressive call on the Street. Barclays also lifted its Overweight target to $575 earlier this month. The counterweight is Morgan Stanley, which kept its Equal-Weight rating with a target of $496, essentially in line with where the stock is trading now, and BMO sits at Market Perform with a $515 target. The mean consensus target of $550 implies roughly 12% upside from current levels. Bulls are focused on the Moody's Investors Service segment, where billed issuance has been running strong and second-half pipeline commentary has been constructive. Bears point to sluggish growth in the Analytics division, weighed down by account losses and strategic terminations, and to the risk that credit issuance momentum fades.
One ownership note adds colour to the setup. Berkshire Hathaway remains the largest shareholder at 14.1% and has held its position unchanged, while TCI Fund Management added over a million shares in Q1. Both represent long-duration, conviction-style holders rather than fast money — a structural feature that tends to dampen the stock's sensitivity to short-term earnings noise.
Today's print will test whether the MIS revenue surge the bulls have modelled is real, and whether Analytics can show any sign that the drag from one-time account losses is abating rather than becoming a structural pattern.
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