American Express heads into Thursday's Q2 print with the Street broadly bullish, shorts near a multi-month low, and options traders the only group showing any real caution.
The clearest pre-earnings signal is in options. The put/call ratio has edged up to 0.67, nearly 1.8 standard deviations above its 20-day average of 0.61 — the most defensive options positioning seen in several weeks, though still well short of the 52-week high of 0.84. That drift toward downside protection is notable given the positive backdrop everywhere else. Short interest, by contrast, tells a story of near-total bear capitulation. Bears have cut positions by 12% over the past month, leaving SI at just 1.5% of the free float — low by any measure. Borrow conditions are the loosest they have been all year: availability runs at roughly 8,600%, meaning there are roughly 86 shares available to lend for every one currently borrowed. Cost to borrow is a negligible 0.38%. There is no short-side pressure here. The ORTEX short score has eased to 32.9, down from 35.1 two weeks ago, consistent with that picture.
The analyst community has been almost uniformly constructive in the run-up. JPMorgan's July 13 upgrade to Overweight — lifting its target from $328 to $400 — was the headline action, followed by BofA holding Buy and nudging to $391. Across the past two weeks, every analyst move on record has been a target raise; not one firm cut. The formal consensus remains a hold — 13 holds against a handful of outperforms and one sell — but the direction of travel is clearly upward. The bull case centres on new account growth in Consumer and Commercial segments, which has offset some deceleration in per-card spending, and the strong demand for fee-paying products. The bear case is harder to dismiss before results: New Card Acquisition fell both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year in Q1, and the company reportedly needed to pull back on marketing spend to protect 2026 EPS targets. Bears also flag that the high-profile Platinum Card refresh may be flattering underlying revenue trends. The PE sits near 18.4x on a trailing basis, up about 0.5 points over the past month, leaving little room for a miss.
One ownership detail worth flagging: Berkshire Hathaway holds 22% of shares outstanding — a figure that has not moved in the most recent filing period. That concentration means AXP often trades on a different dynamic from peers. On the week, COF is flat, SYF is down about 2%, and ALLY is off over 2%, suggesting the consumer finance space is seeing mild selling pressure into earnings season — AXP's 1.2% weekly decline is roughly in line with the group.
The two most recent earnings prints offer a lopsided reference: Q1 2026 (April 23) produced a 5.7% single-day drop and a further 3% loss over the following week, while the May 5 event was essentially flat on the day. The stock has recovered from the April drop and is up 4% over the past month, so the bar coming in is higher. The key variable to watch on Thursday is not whether billed business grew — the Street already expects that — but whether NCA trends stabilised and whether management maintains or raises its 2026 EPS guidance despite the marketing headwind.
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