Robert Half reports Q2 results tomorrow — and the setup is genuinely unusual: the stock is up 15% on the week and 30% on the month, yet shorts remain entrenched at 22% of float and Goldman Sachs is holding a $26 Sell target on a $41 stock.
The short interest story has continued to evolve since last week's note, though the direction is the same: gradual cover, not capitulation. SI as a percentage of free float has edged down to 21.9%, from 22.1% a week ago and roughly 27% in late June. The month-on-month decline is nearly 20% in share terms — a real unwind — but the absolute level keeps RHI among the most heavily shorted names in the market, ranking in just the 2nd percentile of the ORTEX universe on short score (73.4). The lending market offers no pressure to cover faster. Cost to borrow is 0.50%, essentially free, and availability has loosened to 178% — nearly two shares available to borrow for every one currently shorted, up from around 161% a week ago. That backdrop makes the cover look voluntary and tactical, not forced. Options traders have grown slightly more cautious into the print: the put/call ratio has climbed to 0.61, above its 20-day average of 0.47 by more than a standard deviation — modest defensiveness, but a shift from the call-heavy skew that dominated the prior two weeks.
The Street is visibly split, and the gap between bulls and bears is unusually wide given where the stock is trading. Truist raised its target to $50 today, maintaining its Buy — an upgrade in conviction ahead of earnings. Goldman, by contrast, lifted its Sell-rated target to just $26 last week, keeping the bear flag flying even as the stock blew through that level. The consensus mean target of around $31 is well below the current $41 print, meaning the average analyst on the Street is effectively underwater on their view. Valuation has re-rated sharply: the price-to-book multiple has expanded by roughly 1.1x over the past 30 days, and the P/E ratio has added more than six turns in the same window — both reflecting the 30% price surge rather than any fundamental revision. The EPS surprise factor score at 73 and the 30-day EPS momentum rank at 81 suggest the company has been beating expectations recently, which gives bulls a foothold. But the bear case — persistent double-digit declines in contract staffing revenue, weak guidance on Talent Solutions — has not been resolved by price action alone.
Closest peer MAN had the week's most dramatic move in the space, up 32% over seven days, suggesting broader sector sentiment is driving flows as much as RHI-specific dynamics. KFY and TNET gained 6% each — solid but far behind RHI, implying some idiosyncratic positioning in Robert Half ahead of the print.
The pivot tomorrow is whether Q2 revenue and the Talent Solutions trajectory can give either bulls or bears a decisive edge — because at 22% short and a $26-to-$50 target range, the market has not made up its mind.
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