RCI.B heads into tomorrow's Q2 results carrying a month-long build in short positions, a stock down 8% over thirty days, and a street consensus that still sees nearly 24% upside — a gap that earnings will either begin to close or widen further.
The most notable development this week is the short interest rebuild. Positions rose 5.5% in a single day on July 21, lifting the total to 3.4% of the free float — up almost a quarter from mid-June levels, when shorts held closer to 2.8% of float. That one-month acceleration, from roughly 11.8 million shares short to 14.6 million, is meaningful for a Canadian telecom that typically attracts modest short interest. The borrow market tells a different story, however. Availability remains extraordinarily loose at over 1,300% — meaning the lending pool dwarfs the borrowed position by a factor of more than thirteen. Borrowing costs are similarly subdued at 0.55%, near the lowest level of the past six weeks after briefly spiking toward 1.2% on July 9. The shorts rebuilding here are doing so cheaply and easily. There is no squeeze pressure, no tight borrow, no elevated cost that would deter new entrants. The direction of travel — more shorts, less cost — points to deliberate, low-friction positioning ahead of results rather than a disorderly unwind.
The Street is cautiously constructive but growing more selective. The analyst consensus mean price target of CAD 60.17 implies roughly 24% upside from current levels at CAD 48.61, a spread that suggests the market is pricing in meaningful execution risk that analysts are not. No recent rating changes are recorded in the past two weeks. Factor scores fill in the gap: Rogers ranks in the 90th percentile for analyst recommendation divergence — an unusually wide gap between where the stock trades and where the street thinks it belongs — and scores 95th percentile on dividend. Those are the positives. The negatives are harder to dismiss. Forward EPS momentum scores in the 7th percentile on a 12-month basis, the weakest reading across the factor stack, and EPS momentum over 30 and 90 days ranks 18th and 23rd respectively. The PE ratio has compressed to roughly 10x, with EV/EBITDA at 7.6x — both edging lower over the past month. Those multiples are not demanding for a major Canadian telecom, but the weak earnings momentum suggests the denominator may need revisiting after tomorrow's print.
Institutional ownership carries an interesting wrinkle. The Rogers Control Trust holds 27% of shares and has been inactive. Fidelity International trimmed nearly 5.1 million shares in the most recent reported period — one of the larger holder-level moves in the register. RBC Global Asset Management and National Bank Investments both added, at roughly 991,000 and 1.1 million shares respectively. The net picture is a gradual drift away from one large international holder while domestic Canadian asset managers absorb the flow. On the insider side, Lead Independent Director Robert Gemmell purchased 5,000 shares at CAD 50.45 in late May — a small but directional signal at a price above where the stock trades today.
The earnings history available offers one relevant data point: the April 23 Q1 release sent the stock down 3.8% on the day and a further 3.4% over the following week, reflecting the pattern of downward free cash flow revisions and competitive wireless pricing pressure that has dogged the name through 2026. With shorts having rebuilt materially into tomorrow's release, a positive surprise would face a meaningful covering impulse given the relatively light borrow cost. The next session will clarify whether the short rebuild was prescient or premature.
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