TotalEnergies reports second-quarter results tomorrow with the same broad setup that defined the pre-earnings note earlier this week — but the stock has added another 2.3% since Tuesday's close, and the borrowing market has loosened further still, shifting the weight of the story entirely onto the fundamental print.
The borrow market has moved in the opposite direction from bearish conviction. Availability has actually widened since Monday, now running at roughly 3,749% — meaning shares available to borrow exceed shares already lent by a factor of around 37 to one. That's down slightly from the 3,911% reading cited in Tuesday's note, but only because overall borrowable supply has edged lower, not because shorts are building. Cost to borrow has eased to 0.74%, dropping more than 25% on the week and sitting well below the brief spike to 5.4% seen on June 30. The ORTEX short score has barely moved, oscillating in a narrow band around 30.7 all month. Bears have not used the run-up to Q2 as an opportunity to accumulate positions.
The Street is more interesting than the positioning. The consensus mean price target of €95.45 implies roughly 31% upside from current levels — a gap that remains striking for a company of TotalEnergies' scale and liquidity. The dividend factor score ranks in the 94th percentile, and the analyst recommendation divergence scores in the 89th percentile, suggesting analysts are more constructively positioned on TTE relative to sector peers than their typical coverage. The P/E has nudged up about 0.6 points over the past 30 days to roughly 8.2, and EV/EBITDA has risen 0.3 turns to 4.4 — both moving with the share price but still cheap in absolute terms for an integrated major. Q2 cash flow, reported as stronger than expected in an earlier note this week, is the foundation the bulls are pointing to.
Peer moves this week add some context. SHEL gained 3.4% and EQNR climbed 3.9% on the week — both outperforming TTE's 2.3% move. ENI lagged at 0.8%. The spread suggests the sector broadly caught a bid from firmer crude benchmarks, and TotalEnergies tracked the move without leading it. That relative underperformance versus the European majors is a consistent theme: the stock has delivered but not distinguished itself on price action, even as the valuation discount widens.
The prior two quarterly prints are worth framing. In April, the stock rose 1.3% on the day but faded over the following week, finishing five days later down about 1.9%. The May result produced a 1.3% day-one gain that held and extended to a 2.6% five-day return. Neither move was dramatic. With borrow so loose and short interest so contained, there is no mechanical squeeze dynamic to amplify whatever the print delivers — the reaction will be driven purely by how the numbers land against what a valuation this cheap implies the market has already discounted.
The question heading into tomorrow's release is whether downstream margin pressure and oil price volatility have offset the upstream resilience enough to dent cash flow — or whether TotalEnergies' LNG diversification has again provided the buffer that keeps the fundamental case intact.
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