MNDY heads into its August 10 earnings date having shed 11% on the week to $72.84, with short sellers staying put and the Street's consensus price target sitting nearly 50% above the current price.
The most striking feature of this setup is the gap between where bears are positioned and where the analyst community thinks the stock belongs. Short interest is elevated at nearly 14% of free float — roughly 7.2 million shares — and has barely moved over the past week, down just 0.1%. That is a meaningful level of sustained skepticism: one in seven shares of free float is currently bet against the company. Yet the analyst consensus target of $108.54 implies the stock is deeply mispriced to the downside. Bears are not retreating on the dip; they are holding their ground.
The borrow market sends a different signal entirely. Despite short interest running near 14% of float, availability in the lending pool is exceptionally loose — roughly 13.5 shares available for every one currently borrowed. Cost to borrow has collapsed over the past week, halving to just 0.30%, its lowest reading in the past 30 days. This means short sellers face virtually no squeeze mechanics. There is no urgent pressure to cover, no expensive borrow cost draining returns. The shorts can be patient. Options positioning is similarly unremarkable: the put/call ratio of 1.10 is essentially in line with its 20-day average of 1.09, with a z-score close to zero. Neither the options market nor the lending market is flashing stress — which, given the scale of the price drop this week, is notable in itself.
The Street remains broadly constructive, though targets have drifted lower. BTIG trimmed its target to $105 from $115 last week while holding a Buy rating. Earlier analyst actions following the May earnings print showed a similar pattern: most firms maintained positive ratings but cut targets, with a handful — UBS and Piper Sandler — staying Neutral. The bull case centres on Monday.com's AI infrastructure pivot, the OneAI acquisition, and its hybrid SaaS-plus-usage model, which supporters argue positions the company well for enterprise expansion. Bears counter with concerns about execution in CRM and service products against entrenched competitors, and near-term pressure on net dollar retention as AI pricing models evolve. Valuation multiples have compressed meaningfully: EV/EBITDA has contracted nearly one full turn over the past week to 8.3x, and the PE has fallen to 14.7x — modest for a software name growing revenue at 25% year-on-year. The forward earnings momentum score of 80 for the 90-day window suggests estimate revisions have been running positive even as the stock retreats.
The institutional register adds an interesting wrinkle. Renaissance Technologies added over a million shares in Q1, and Two Sigma and D.E. Shaw both built substantial new positions, each adding more than a million shares. These quantitative shops tend to move on signals, not narratives, and their collective buying into the February-March weakness is a data point worth noting. Co-founder Roy Mann remains the largest single holder at 11.2% of shares, adding some stability to the register, though his marginal activity has been negligible.
The last earnings print on May 11 produced a muted one-day reaction of essentially flat, followed by an 8.3% five-day gain — a pattern suggesting the initial read is often harsher than the considered one. With the stock now down 11% in a single week ahead of the August 10 report, the question heading into that date is whether the sell-off is pre-earnings caution crystallising early, or genuine fundamental repricing — and whether the patient shorts will finally move once numbers are on the table.
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