NCH2 enters the final stretch before its August 12 earnings with borrowing costs off their peak but the underlying lending squeeze very much intact.
The clearest update since the earlier note this week is that cost to borrow has pulled back further — from a July 15 peak of 137% and a July 16 reading of 103%, it settled at 62% by July 20. That retreat is real, but it does not change the fundamental structure. Availability remains locked near 1.33%, meaning fewer than two shares remain free to borrow for every hundred already lent out. The borrow pool has been pinned in the 0.5%–1.7% range for the entirety of July. When that little headroom exists in the lending market, any fresh demand for borrows — from a new short position or a portfolio hedge — immediately reprices the cost upward, which explains why the spike to 137% happened in the first place and why costs remain elevated even after the partial retracement.
The ORTEX short score captures the overall tension well. It has climbed to 96.2 as of July 21, its highest level in the dataset, and has risen almost every session over the past two weeks. The divergence flagged earlier in the week remains: short interest as a percentage of free float has actually been declining since March, yet the borrow market is tighter than at any point in the past year. The factor score table underscores this — short score rank and days-to-cover rank both sit at the 1st percentile, meaning nearly every stock in the universe has lower short pressure readings. That combination of falling gross short interest and near-zero availability suggests that the shorts still in the position are not exiting cleanly and cannot be easily replaced if they do.
The Street backdrop offers little relief for bears. The analyst consensus price target sits at €10.62, a 38% premium to the current price of €7.72. Recent analyst activity has been limited — no changes in the past week — but the implied return from current levels is substantial, pointing to a view that the stock's fundamental problems are already more than priced in. That said, nucera's financials remain deeply challenged: the trailing P/E is deeply negative at -178x and the EV/EBITDA at -54x, both reflecting a business that is still burning cash. EPS momentum ranks in the 1st percentile on a 30-day basis, and the forward earnings picture, while showing some improvement from a very low base, has not yet translated into a convincing re-rating. The ownership structure limits the float meaningfully — Thyssenkrupp Projekt 1 GmbH holds 50% of shares and Federico De Nora holds a further 26%, leaving a thin free float for the borrow pool to draw from, which structurally amplifies any squeeze dynamic.
Peers had a mixed week. AMRC fell 7.5% over seven days while DOMIK and MAIRE each slipped roughly 1.7–1.9%. NCH2 itself gained 2.9% on the week, an outperformance that looks inconsistent with deteriorating fundamentals and likely reflects the squeeze pressure on anyone still trying to initiate or maintain a short position. When a stock with 15%+ short interest and sub-2% borrow availability moves higher, the marginal short faces an unattractive entry: paying 62% per annum to borrow, with no guarantee availability will remain even at its current thin level.
The August 12 results are now three weeks away. After the last two earnings events, the stock gained more than 5% in a single session and held most of those gains over five days — a pattern that will not be lost on the remaining shorts facing an illiquid borrow market heading into a catalyst.
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